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Non League Premier - Northern England Round 19 2026

Ilkeston Town vs United of Manchester

Ilkeston Town Home · Elo 1,486
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
United of Manchester Away · Elo 1,498
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ilkeston Town win
Ilkeston Town winPick
40.3%
Draw
27.4%
United of Manchester win
32.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%

How much we know

Ilkeston Town history70 matches
United of Manchester history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Ilkeston Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,486 against 1,498. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.30 goals a game over 70 matches for Ilkeston Town, against 1.44 over 77 for United of Manchester.

  • Defences are close

    Ilkeston Town concede 1.30 a game, United of Manchester 1.34.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Ilkeston Town matches, against 51% for United of Manchester. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ilkeston Town
United of Manchester@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1485.6
ELO
1498.0
70
ELO · Matches
77
1485.6
Current Team ELO
1498.0
1498.0
Current Opponent ELO
1485.6
-12.35
Current ELO Difference
12.35
0.48
Expected score
0.52
70
History Matches
77
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
49.24
Overperformance
49.74
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.35
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.40
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.50
1.30
Goals for per game
0.70
1.50
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
77
1.33
PPG
1.49
37.1%
Win rate
42.9%
21.4%
Draw rate
20.8%
41.4%
Loss rate
36.4%
74.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.9%
54.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.2%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
39
1.54
PPG
1.59
45.7%
Win rate
46.2%
17.1%
Draw rate
20.5%
37.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
74.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
54.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.7%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
35
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.44
65.7%
Scoring rate
76.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.6%
1.51
Goals for per game
1.44
71.4%
Scoring rate
71.8%
48.6%
BTTS rate
41.0%
0.83
Goals for per game
0.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
70
History Matches
77
1.30
Goals Mean
1.44
1.30
Goals Std
1.17
65.7%
Scored 1+ rate
76.6%
35.7%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
18.6%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.51
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.34
75.7%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.28
74.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.83
83.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
70
History Matches
77
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.09
Conceded Std
1.24
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.9%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
77
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.90
Goal Difference Std
1.87
3.24
Stability score
3.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
76
19
Lead Matches
25
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
76.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.81
18
Trailing Matches
26
22.2%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.84
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
55
Normal Rest History Matches
60
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
11
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.17
PPG
0.33
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.17
Current Competition PPG
0.33
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.83
Portability PPG Range
1.92
60.56
Portability Score
45.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-12.35
PPG-0.16
GF-0.14
GA-0.04
PPG0.83
PPG-0.05
PPG0.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate10.9%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate0.4%
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score-0.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate2.9%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-1.08
Portability Score14.99
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO-12.35
Current Opponent ELO12.35
Current ELO Difference-24.70
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ilkeston Town

L
Leek Town3–2Ilkeston Town7 Nov · away
Pick: Leek Town 50% · hit
W
Ilkeston Town1–0Hyde United31 Oct · home
Pick: Ilkeston Town 46% · hit
W
Ilkeston Town2–0Avro17 Oct · home
Pick: Avro 53% · missed
L
Gainsborough Trinity3–1Ilkeston Town13 Oct · away
Pick: Gainsborough Trinity 62% · hit
L
Ilkeston Town0–2Guiseley AFC6 Oct · home
Pick: Guiseley AFC 47% · hit

United of Manchester

L
Curzon Ashton1–0United of Manchester3 Nov · away
Pick: Curzon Ashton 50% · hit
D
United of Manchester0–0Lancaster City31 Oct · home
Pick: United of Manchester 46% · missed
D
United of Manchester1–1Quorn27 Oct · home
Pick: United of Manchester 44% · missed
W
United of Manchester4–2Whitby Town24 Oct · home
Pick: United of Manchester 58% · hit
D
Altrincham0–0United of Manchester17 Oct · away
Pick: Altrincham 47% · missed

About this match

Ilkeston Town and United of Manchester meet in Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ilkeston Town win 40.3%, draw 27.4%, United of Manchester win 32.3%. The pick is Ilkeston Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.9%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.