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Non League Premier - Northern England Round 19 2026

Redcar Athletic vs Warrington Town

Redcar Athletic Home · Elo 1,590
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Warrington Town Away · Elo 1,441
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Redcar Athletic win
Redcar Athletic winPick
38.5%
Draw
30.4%
Warrington Town win
31.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%

How much we know

Redcar Athletic history34 matches
Warrington Town history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Redcar Athletic are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Redcar Athletic are rated 149 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,590 against 1,441. On rating alone Redcar Athletic would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Redcar Athletic score far more

    2.29 goals a game over 34 matches for Redcar Athletic, against 1.01 over 73 for Warrington Town.

  • Redcar Athletic concede fewer

    Redcar Athletic concede 1.21 a game, Warrington Town 1.66.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Redcar Athletic matches, against 52% for Warrington Town. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Redcar Athletic
Warrington Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1590.2
ELO
1440.7
34
ELO · Matches
73
1590.2
Current Team ELO
1440.7
1440.7
Current Opponent ELO
1590.2
149.5
Current ELO Difference
-149.5
0.70
Expected score
0.30
34
History Matches
73
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.03
58.19
Overperformance
47.31
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
73
1.91
PPG
0.96
52.9%
Win rate
24.7%
32.4%
Draw rate
21.9%
14.7%
Loss rate
53.4%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.2%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.7%
2.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
35
2.00
PPG
0.77
58.8%
Win rate
20.0%
23.5%
Draw rate
17.1%
17.6%
Loss rate
62.9%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
62.9%
58.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.1%
2.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
17
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.29
Goals for per game
1.01
76.5%
Scoring rate
56.2%
52.9%
BTTS rate
45.2%
2.47
Goals for per game
1.09
76.5%
Scoring rate
62.9%
52.9%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.17
66.7%
Scoring rate
83.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
34
History Matches
73
2.29
Goals Mean
1.01
2.15
Goals Std
1.15
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
56.2%
52.9%
Scored 2+ rate
30.1%
38.2%
Scored 3+ rate
9.6%
2.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.21
Goals against per game
1.66
58.8%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.35
Goals against per game
2.06
64.7%
Conceding rate
97.1%
0.33
Goals against per game
1.17
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
34
History Matches
73
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.39
Conceded Std
1.36
32.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.7%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
2.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
2.9%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
2.9%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
73
0.90
Result entropy
0.92
2.51
Goal Difference Std
2.03
10.46
Stability score
7.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
26
Eligible Matches
72
8
Lead Matches
15
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.73
7
Trailing Matches
29
28.6%
Non-loss rate
17.2%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
6.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.35
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.84
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
21
Normal Rest History Matches
63
2.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
10
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
2.00
PPG
2.17
50.0%
Win rate
66.7%
50.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.77
6
Current Competition Matches
6
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.17
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.75
1.13
Portability PPG Range
2.17
49.75
Portability Score
39.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO149.5
PPG0.95
GF1.28
GA-0.45
PPG-0.17
PPG1.23
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-39
Clean-sheet rate22.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate32.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-39
Goals Mean1.28
Goals Std1.00
Scored 1+ rate20.3%
Scored 2+ rate22.8%
Scored 3+ rate28.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-39
Conceded Mean-0.45
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate22.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches-39
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.48
Stability score2.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.24
Eligible Matches-46
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate20.8%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-22
Non-loss rate11.3%
Trailing Win Rate7.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-46
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-1.04
Portability Score9.90
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.50
Normal Rest History Matches-42
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.00
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match1.17
Current Team ELO149.5
Current Opponent ELO-149.5
Current ELO Difference299.0
Expected score0.41
History Matches-39
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance10.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Redcar Athletic

L
Hyde United4–2Redcar Athletic7 Nov · away
Pick: Redcar Athletic 53% · missed
D
Redcar Athletic2–2Guiseley AFC31 Oct · home
Pick: Redcar Athletic 39% · missed
L
Ashton United1–0Redcar Athletic24 Oct · away
Pick: Ashton United 62% · hit
W
Ashton United1–2Redcar Athletic17 Oct · away
Pick: Ashton United 40% · missed
W
Redcar Athletic3–1Avro13 Oct · home
Pick: Avro 42% · missed

Warrington Town

W
Avro0–3Warrington Town7 Nov · away
Pick: Avro 55% · missed
W
Ashton United0–1Warrington Town3 Nov · away
Pick: Ashton United 47% · missed
L
Quorn3–2Warrington Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Warrington Town 45% · missed
L
Warrington Town1–2Gainsborough Trinity24 Oct · home
Pick: Warrington Town 36% · missed
D
Alfreton Town1–1Warrington Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Alfreton Town 40% · missed

About this match

Redcar Athletic and Warrington Town meet in Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Redcar Athletic win 38.5%, draw 30.4%, Warrington Town win 31.1%. The pick is Redcar Athletic win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.2%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.