ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 17 2026

Cucuta vs Santa Fe

Cucuta Home · Elo 1,518
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Santa Fe Away · Elo 1,596
Estadio General Santander Referee: J. Bautista Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 07:49 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Santa Fe win
Cucuta win
27.6%
Draw
27.0%
Santa Fe winPick
45.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.0%
Under 2.551.0%

How much we know

Cucuta history67 matches
Santa Fe history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 15 h ahead
    31 Oct · 07:49 UTC
  2. Re-published 8 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 23:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Santa Fe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Santa Fe are rated 79 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,518. On rating alone Santa Fe would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.31 goals a game over 67 matches for Cucuta, against 1.39 over 75 for Santa Fe.

  • Santa Fe concede fewer

    Cucuta concede 1.21 a game, Santa Fe 0.99.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Cucuta matches, against 45% for Santa Fe. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cucuta
Santa Fe
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.7
ELO
1596.4
67
ELO · Matches
75
1517.7
Current Team ELO
1596.4
1596.4
Current Opponent ELO
1517.7
-78.79
Current ELO Difference
78.79
0.39
Expected score
0.61
67
History Matches
75
0.02
Residual Mean
0.08
51.59
Overperformance
56.08
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
2.10
0.60
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
0.50
10.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
75
1.55
PPG
1.60
40.3%
Win rate
41.3%
34.3%
Draw rate
36.0%
25.4%
Loss rate
22.7%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
74.7%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.3%
25.4%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
32
1.89
PPG
1.34
51.4%
Win rate
31.3%
35.1%
Draw rate
40.6%
13.5%
Loss rate
28.1%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
34.4%
24.3%
Over 3.5 rate
9.4%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
37
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.39
77.6%
Scoring rate
80.0%
53.7%
BTTS rate
56.0%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.13
86.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
59.5%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.57
77.3%
Scoring rate
87.0%
63.6%
BTTS rate
69.6%
67
History Matches
75
1.31
Goals Mean
1.39
1.03
Goals Std
1.22
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
40.3%
Scored 2+ rate
36.0%
7.5%
Scored 3+ rate
12.0%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.21
Goals against per game
0.99
67.2%
Conceding rate
64.0%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.09
64.9%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.82
Goals against per game
0.96
81.8%
Conceding rate
73.9%
67
History Matches
75
1.21
Conceded Mean
0.99
1.18
Conceded Std
1.01
35.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.0%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
75
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.65
1.58
Stability score
2.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
75
22
Lead Matches
25
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
56.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.69
14
Trailing Matches
12
35.7%
Non-loss rate
41.7%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.93
Rest days
74.01
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
12
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.83
38
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.84
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
24
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.54
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
23
0.95
PPG
1.57
18.2%
Win rate
34.8%
40.9%
Draw rate
52.2%
40.9%
Loss rate
13.0%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
22
Current Competition Matches
23
0.95
Current Competition PPG
1.57
-0.68
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.61
5
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.14
1.28
Portability PPG Range
0.32
47.20
Portability Score
78.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-78.79
PPG-0.05
GF-0.07
GA0.22
PPG-0.61
PPG0.55
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate2.4%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate4.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.43
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate9.2%
Conceded 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.62
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score-1.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate21.3%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate6.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.61
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.29
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.42
Portability PPG Range0.96
Portability Score-30.87
Rest days-0.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-8
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO-78.79
Current Opponent ELO78.79
Current ELO Difference-157.6
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cucuta

L
Cucuta0–2Águilas Doradas27 Oct · home
Pick: Cucuta 45% · missed
L
America de Cali3–1Cucuta24 Oct · away
Pick: America de Cali 63% · hit
W
Cucuta1–0Atletico Nacional20 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 51% · missed
W
Cucuta4–0Deportivo Pereira4 Oct · home
Pick: Cucuta 47% · hit
L
Deportes Tolima2–1Cucuta1 Sep · away
Pick: Deportes Tolima 57% · hit

Santa Fe

L
Santa Fe0–2Once Caldas2 Nov · home
Pick: Santa Fe 39% · missed
L
Atletico Nacional2–0Santa Fe30 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Nacional 50% · hit
W
Santa Fe2–1Bucaramanga27 Oct · home
Pick: Santa Fe 49% · hit
L
Llaneros1–0Santa Fe18 Oct · away
Pick: Santa Fe 40% · missed
W
Independiente Medellin0–1Santa Fe6 Oct · away
Pick: Santa Fe 39% · hit

About this match

Cucuta and Santa Fe meet in Primera A on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 23:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio General Santander. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 07:49 UTC: Cucuta win 27.6%, draw 27.0%, Santa Fe win 45.4%. The pick is Santa Fe win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.0%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.