ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 17 2026

Millonarios vs America de Cali

Millonarios Home · Elo 1,536
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
America de Cali Away · Elo 1,621
Venue to be confirmed Referee: W. Roldan Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:14 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: America de Cali win
Millonarios win
35.0%
Draw
28.3%
America de Cali winPick
36.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.2%
No53.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.1%
Under 2.556.9%

How much we know

Millonarios history76 matches
America de Cali history88 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 17 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:14 UTC
  2. Re-published 9 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 01:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why America de Cali are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • America de Cali are rated 85 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,621 against 1,536. On rating alone America de Cali would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.39 goals a game over 76 matches for Millonarios, against 1.30 over 88 for America de Cali.

  • America de Cali concede fewer

    Millonarios concede 1.07 a game, America de Cali 0.82.

  • Millonarios games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Millonarios matches, against 35% for America de Cali. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Millonarios
America de Cali
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.2
ELO
1620.8
76
ELO · Matches
88
1536.2
Current Team ELO
1620.8
1620.8
Current Opponent ELO
1536.2
-84.61
Current ELO Difference
84.61
0.38
Expected score
0.62
76
History Matches
88
0.03
Residual Mean
0.06
52.24
Overperformance
54.97
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.20
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.30
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.10
Goals against per game
0.40
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
2.24
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.85
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
88
1.50
PPG
1.66
40.8%
Win rate
44.3%
27.6%
Draw rate
33.0%
31.6%
Loss rate
22.7%
64.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.6%
46.1%
Over 2.5 rate
35.2%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
10.2%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
47
1.80
PPG
1.34
50.0%
Win rate
36.2%
30.0%
Draw rate
25.5%
20.0%
Loss rate
38.3%
57.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.0%
42.5%
Over 2.5 rate
31.9%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
8.5%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
40
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.30
71.1%
Scoring rate
75.0%
47.4%
BTTS rate
44.3%
1.43
Goals for per game
0.98
72.5%
Scoring rate
66.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
36.2%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.52
84.2%
Scoring rate
78.3%
57.9%
BTTS rate
30.4%
76
History Matches
88
1.39
Goals Mean
1.30
1.37
Goals Std
1.19
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
42.1%
Scored 2+ rate
35.2%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
11.4%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
0.98
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
0.82
63.2%
Conceding rate
58.0%
0.78
Goals against per game
0.98
50.0%
Conceding rate
59.6%
1.11
Goals against per game
0.74
63.2%
Conceding rate
43.5%
76
History Matches
88
1.07
Conceded Mean
0.82
0.98
Conceded Std
0.85
35.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.5%
7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.3%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
0.98
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
56.5%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
88
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.62
1.22
Stability score
3.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
88
22
Lead Matches
26
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
88.5%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.92
16
Trailing Matches
19
37.5%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
88
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.21
Rest days
74.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
12
1.38
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.58
42
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
25
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
23
1.42
PPG
1.91
36.8%
Win rate
56.5%
31.6%
Draw rate
21.7%
31.6%
Loss rate
21.7%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
19
Current Competition Matches
23
1.42
Current Competition PPG
1.91
0.37
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.78
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.75
Portability PPG Std
0.27
2.50
Portability PPG Range
0.82
39.91
Portability Score
65.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
88
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-84.61
PPG-0.16
GF0.10
GA0.25
PPG-0.49
PPG0.46
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate3.9%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-12
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate6.9%
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate15.1%
Conceded 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-2.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate5.9%
Trailing Win Rate7.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches-4
Current Competition PPG-0.49
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.41
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.49
Portability PPG Range1.68
Portability Score-25.32
Rest days0.11
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO-84.61
Current Opponent ELO84.61
Current ELO Difference-169.2
Expected score-0.24
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Millonarios

D
Millonarios1–1Once Caldas21 Oct · home
Pick: Millonarios 49% · missed
D
Millonarios0–0Internacional de Bogota30 Aug · home
Pick: Millonarios 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

America de Cali

W
America de Cali3–1Cucuta24 Oct · home
Pick: America de Cali 63% · hit
D
Bucaramanga1–1America de Cali18 Oct · away
Pick: America de Cali 38% · missed
L
America de Cali1–2Independiente Medellin12 Oct · home
Pick: America de Cali 50% · missed
W
Llaneros1–2America de Cali5 Oct · away
Pick: America de Cali 38% · hit
D
Jaguares2–2America de Cali29 Aug · away
Pick: America de Cali 44% · missed

About this match

Millonarios and America de Cali meet in Primera A on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 01:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:14 UTC: Millonarios win 35.0%, draw 28.3%, America de Cali win 36.7%. The pick is America de Cali win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.1%. Both teams to score: 46.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.