ScoreProb
Serie B Brazil Round 37 2026

Cuiaba vs Juventude

Cuiaba Home · Elo 1,525
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Juventude Away · Elo 1,586
Arena Pantanal Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cuiaba win
Cuiaba winPick
39.1%
Draw
26.4%
Juventude win
34.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.3%
No54.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.3%
Under 2.559.7%

How much we know

Cuiaba history63 matches
Juventude history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 00:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Cuiaba are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Juventude are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,586 against 1,525. On rating alone Juventude would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.14 goals a game over 63 matches for Cuiaba, against 1.09 over 75 for Juventude.

  • Cuiaba concede fewer

    Cuiaba concede 1.00 a game, Juventude 1.16.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    32% of Cuiaba matches, against 36% for Juventude. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cuiaba
Juventude
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1525.2
ELO
1586.0
63
ELO · Matches
75
1525.2
Current Team ELO
1586.0
1586.0
Current Opponent ELO
1525.2
-60.78
Current ELO Difference
60.78
0.41
Expected score
0.59
63
History Matches
75
0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
51.59
Overperformance
55.14
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.10
Goals against per game
0.60
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
75
1.40
PPG
1.43
34.9%
Win rate
38.7%
34.9%
Draw rate
26.7%
30.2%
Loss rate
34.7%
60.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
31.7%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
25.4%
Over 3.5 rate
18.7%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
35
1.72
PPG
1.03
50.0%
Win rate
25.7%
21.9%
Draw rate
25.7%
28.1%
Loss rate
48.6%
53.1%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
28.1%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
32
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.14
Goals for per game
1.09
66.7%
Scoring rate
68.0%
41.3%
BTTS rate
38.7%
1.34
Goals for per game
0.80
75.0%
Scoring rate
62.9%
34.4%
BTTS rate
42.9%
0.95
Goals for per game
1.08
63.6%
Scoring rate
70.8%
40.9%
BTTS rate
20.8%
63
History Matches
75
1.14
Goals Mean
1.09
1.12
Goals Std
1.04
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
68.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
28.0%
7.9%
Scored 3+ rate
10.7%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
0.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.16
66.7%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.60
56.3%
Conceding rate
68.6%
0.82
Goals against per game
0.54
63.6%
Conceding rate
29.2%
63
History Matches
75
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.16
0.89
Conceded Std
1.32
27.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.0%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
70.8%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
75
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.84
0.21
Stability score
1.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
75
17
Lead Matches
20
58.8%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.85
14
Trailing Matches
23
28.6%
Non-loss rate
21.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.13
Rest days
73.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
10
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
34
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
24
1.41
PPG
1.88
31.8%
Win rate
54.2%
45.5%
Draw rate
25.0%
22.7%
Loss rate
20.8%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
45.8%
18.2%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
13.6%
Over 3.5 rate
4.2%
1.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
22
Current Competition Matches
24
1.41
Current Competition PPG
1.88
0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.54
4
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.49
1.30
Portability PPG Range
1.35
49.70
Portability Score
50.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-60.78
PPG-0.03
GF0.05
GA-0.16
PPG-0.47
PPG0.69
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-12
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate5.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.43
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.82
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.50
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score-0.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate6.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.47
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.41
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.05
Portability Score-1.06
Rest days3.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Current Team ELO-60.78
Current Opponent ELO60.78
Current ELO Difference-121.6
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cuiaba

L
Cuiaba1–2São Bernardo1 Nov · home
Pick: Cuiaba 44% · missed
L
America Mineiro1–0Cuiaba26 Oct · away
Pick: Cuiaba 37% · missed
L
Londrina1–0Cuiaba20 Oct · away
Pick: Londrina 35% · hit
D
Vila Nova0–0Cuiaba7 Oct · away
Pick: Vila Nova 52% · missed
W
Botafogo SP1–2Cuiaba29 Aug · away
Pick: Botafogo SP 40% · missed

Juventude

W
Juventude4–0Nautico Recife26 Oct · home
Pick: Juventude 48% · hit
D
Ceara2–2Juventude17 Oct · away
Pick: Ceara 39% · missed
W
Ponte Preta0–2Juventude7 Oct · away
Pick: Juventude 65% · hit
D
Londrina0–0Juventude1 Sep · away
Pick: Juventude 39% · missed
W
Juventude2–1CRB25 Aug · home
Pick: Juventude 43% · hit

About this match

Cuiaba and Juventude meet in Serie B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 00:30 UTC. The match is played at Arena Pantanal. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cuiaba win 39.1%, draw 26.4%, Juventude win 34.6%. The pick is Cuiaba win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.3%. Both teams to score: 45.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.