ScoreProb
Serie B Brazil Round 37 2026

Operario-PR vs Sport Recife

Operario-PR Home · Elo 1,530
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sport Recife Away · Elo 1,537
Estadio Germano Kruger, Punta Grossa Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sport Recife win
Operario-PR win
32.8%
Draw
27.6%
Sport Recife winPick
39.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.4%
No48.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%

How much we know

Operario-PR history78 matches
Sport Recife history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 22:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Sport Recife are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,530 against 1,537. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sport Recife score more

    1.13 goals a game over 78 matches for Operario-PR, against 1.29 over 86 for Sport Recife.

  • Operario-PR concede fewer

    Operario-PR concede 1.06 a game, Sport Recife 1.35.

  • Sport Recife games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Operario-PR matches, against 53% for Sport Recife. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Operario-PR
Sport Recife
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.5
ELO
1537.4
78
ELO · Matches
86
1530.5
Current Team ELO
1537.4
1537.4
Current Opponent ELO
1530.5
-6.91
Current ELO Difference
6.91
0.49
Expected score
0.51
78
History Matches
86
0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
51.68
Overperformance
52.53
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
2.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
86
1.42
PPG
1.30
34.6%
Win rate
34.9%
38.5%
Draw rate
25.6%
26.9%
Loss rate
39.5%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.6%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.5%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
39
1.68
PPG
1.15
42.5%
Win rate
30.8%
40.0%
Draw rate
23.1%
17.5%
Loss rate
46.2%
67.5%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
17.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
40
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.29
69.2%
Scoring rate
70.9%
48.7%
BTTS rate
47.7%
1.30
Goals for per game
0.90
80.0%
Scoring rate
59.0%
52.5%
BTTS rate
41.0%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.40
75.0%
Scoring rate
85.0%
54.2%
BTTS rate
60.0%
78
History Matches
86
1.13
Goals Mean
1.29
0.95
Goals Std
1.21
69.2%
Scored 1+ rate
70.9%
34.6%
Scored 2+ rate
34.9%
9.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.3%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.06
Goals against per game
1.35
62.8%
Conceding rate
69.8%
0.95
Goals against per game
1.31
57.5%
Conceding rate
71.8%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.00
62.5%
Conceding rate
65.0%
78
History Matches
86
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.11
Conceded Std
1.21
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.9%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.3%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
42.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
37.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
42.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.0%
37.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
86
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.41
Goal Difference Std
1.90
0.97
Stability score
1.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
86
20
Lead Matches
23
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
69.6%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.75
17
Trailing Matches
25
41.2%
Non-loss rate
16.0%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.06
Rest days
74.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
11
0.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
49
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
23
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
20
1.50
PPG
1.50
41.7%
Win rate
35.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
45.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
20.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
24
Current Competition Matches
20
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.04
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
7
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.65
0.58
Portability PPG Range
1.89
72.33
Portability Score
43.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-6.91
PPG0.12
GF-0.16
GA-0.28
PPG0.00
PPG0.52
PPG-1.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Failed-to-score rate1.7%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.49
Stability score-0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate5.4%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate25.2%
Trailing Win Rate7.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches4
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.44
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.45
Portability PPG Range-1.32
Portability Score28.70
Rest days1.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.40
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO-6.91
Current Opponent ELO6.91
Current ELO Difference-13.81
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Operario-PR

L
Novorizontino2–1Operario-PR1 Nov · away
Pick: Novorizontino 48% · hit
W
Operario-PR1–0Athletic Club23 Oct · home
Pick: Operario-PR 46% · hit
L
America Mineiro1–0Operario-PR17 Oct · away
Pick: Operario-PR 40% · missed
L
Operario-PR1–2Botafogo SP7 Oct · home
Pick: Operario-PR 51% · missed
D
Fortaleza EC1–1Operario-PR31 Aug · away
Pick: Fortaleza EC 54% · missed

Sport Recife

D
Botafogo SP1–1Sport Recife31 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Recife 47% · missed
W
Sport Recife2–1Criciuma24 Oct · home
Pick: Sport Recife 43% · hit
L
Sport Recife0–2Fortaleza EC16 Oct · home
Pick: Sport Recife 37% · missed
W
Sport Recife2–1São Bernardo6 Oct · home
Pick: Sport Recife 54% · hit
W
Sport Recife3–0America Mineiro24 Aug · home
Pick: Sport Recife 58% · hit

About this match

Operario-PR and Sport Recife meet in Serie B on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 22:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Germano Kruger, Punta Grossa. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Operario-PR win 32.8%, draw 27.6%, Sport Recife win 39.5%. The pick is Sport Recife win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.3%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.