ScoreProb
Allsvenskan Sweden Round 28 2026

Degerfors IF vs Gais

Degerfors IF Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gais Away · Elo 1,593
Stora Valla, Degerfors Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gais win
Degerfors IF win
31.4%
Draw
24.4%
Gais winPick
44.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%

How much we know

Degerfors IF history70 matches
Gais history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Gais are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gais are rated 92 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,593 against 1,501. On rating alone Gais would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Gais score more

    1.29 goals a game over 70 matches for Degerfors IF, against 1.54 over 72 for Gais.

  • Gais concede fewer

    Degerfors IF concede 1.59 a game, Gais 1.08.

  • Degerfors IF games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Degerfors IF matches, against 49% for Gais. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Degerfors IF
Gais
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.8
ELO
1593.0
70
ELO · Matches
72
1500.8
Current Team ELO
1593.0
1593.0
Current Opponent ELO
1500.8
-92.21
Current ELO Difference
92.21
0.37
Expected score
0.63
70
History Matches
72
0.00
Residual Mean
0.07
49.76
Overperformance
55.46
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.73
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.69
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
72
1.23
PPG
1.76
34.3%
Win rate
51.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
45.7%
Loss rate
26.4%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
33
1.06
PPG
1.52
27.3%
Win rate
42.4%
24.2%
Draw rate
24.2%
48.5%
Loss rate
33.3%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
15.2%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
33
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.54
70.0%
Scoring rate
76.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
48.6%
0.94
Goals for per game
1.39
60.6%
Scoring rate
75.8%
45.5%
BTTS rate
51.5%
0.94
Goals for per game
1.17
55.6%
Scoring rate
72.2%
44.4%
BTTS rate
38.9%
70
History Matches
72
1.29
Goals Mean
1.54
1.22
Goals Std
1.22
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
34.3%
Scored 2+ rate
47.2%
17.1%
Scored 3+ rate
23.6%
0.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.59
Goals against per game
1.08
84.3%
Conceding rate
68.1%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.36
78.8%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.61
Goals against per game
1.00
88.9%
Conceding rate
61.1%
70
History Matches
72
1.59
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.20
Conceded Std
1.05
41.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.2%
22.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.9%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
39.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
15.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
39.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
15.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
72
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.86
4.72
Stability score
6.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
71
17
Lead Matches
29
94.1%
Lead Win Rate
82.8%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.87
30
Trailing Matches
15
23.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.08
Rest days
76.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
38
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
28
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
0.89
PPG
1.28
22.2%
Win rate
33.3%
22.2%
Draw rate
27.8%
55.6%
Loss rate
38.9%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
18
Current Competition Matches
18
0.89
Current Competition PPG
1.28
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.17
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.28
Portability PPG Range
1.22
53.16
Portability Score
52.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-92.21
PPG-0.54
GF-0.26
GA0.50
PPG-0.39
PPG-0.45
PPG1.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate6.4%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate15.2%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.99
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.50
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate15.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.67
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-1.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate11.4%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate3.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.39
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.83
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score0.79
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Current Team ELO-92.21
Current Opponent ELO92.21
Current ELO Difference-184.4
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Degerfors IF

L
Djurgardens IF2–1Degerfors IF1 Nov · away
Pick: Djurgardens IF 64% · hit
L
Degerfors IF0–3Vasteras SK FK28 Oct · home
Pick: Degerfors IF 37% · missed
L
BK Hacken4–0Degerfors IF24 Oct · away
Pick: BK Hacken 60% · hit
L
Degerfors IF1–2Kalmar FF19 Oct · home
Pick: Degerfors IF 38% · missed
L
IF Elfsborg2–0Degerfors IF29 Aug · away
Pick: IF Elfsborg 56% · hit

Gais

W
Gais2–1AIK Stockholm2 Nov · home
Pick: Gais 48% · hit
W
Kalmar FF0–1Gais29 Oct · away
Pick: Gais 40% · hit
D
Gais1–1IFK Goteborg25 Oct · home
Pick: Gais 49% · missed
L
Orgryte IS4–2Gais18 Oct · away
Pick: Gais 44% · missed
W
Gais4–0IF Brommapojkarna31 Aug · home
Pick: Gais 45% · hit

About this match

Degerfors IF and Gais meet in Allsvenskan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Stora Valla, Degerfors. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Degerfors IF win 31.4%, draw 24.4%, Gais win 44.2%. The pick is Gais win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.4%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.