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Primera B Metropolitana Argentina Quarter-finals 2026

Deportivo Armenio vs Sportivo Italiano

Deportivo Armenio Home · Elo 1,526
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sportivo Italiano Away · Elo 1,542
Armenia Stadium, Buenos Aires Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Deportivo Armenio win
33.0%
DrawPick
34.2%
Sportivo Italiano win
32.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.9%
No55.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.7%
Under 2.562.3%

How much we know

Deportivo Armenio history74 matches
Sportivo Italiano history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.2%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,526 against 1,542. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.07 goals a game over 74 matches for Deportivo Armenio, against 1.14 over 66 for Sportivo Italiano.

  • Sportivo Italiano concede fewer

    Deportivo Armenio concede 1.03 a game, Sportivo Italiano 0.82.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    35% of Deportivo Armenio matches, against 35% for Sportivo Italiano. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportivo Armenio
Sportivo Italiano@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1526.2
ELO
1542.5
74
ELO · Matches
66
1526.2
Current Team ELO
1542.5
1542.5
Current Opponent ELO
1526.2
-16.27
Current ELO Difference
16.27
0.48
Expected score
0.52
74
History Matches
66
0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
51.77
Overperformance
52.41
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
66
1.41
PPG
1.55
33.8%
Win rate
40.9%
39.2%
Draw rate
31.8%
27.0%
Loss rate
27.3%
62.2%
Over 1.5 rate
60.6%
35.1%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
14.9%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
33
1.54
PPG
1.42
38.5%
Win rate
36.4%
38.5%
Draw rate
33.3%
23.1%
Loss rate
30.3%
64.1%
Over 1.5 rate
57.6%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
39.4%
10.3%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
39
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
1.14
73.0%
Scoring rate
68.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
43.9%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.09
69.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
46.2%
BTTS rate
48.5%
1.07
Goals for per game
1.13
76.7%
Scoring rate
65.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
43.8%
74
History Matches
66
1.07
Goals Mean
1.14
0.92
Goals Std
1.09
73.0%
Scored 1+ rate
68.2%
23.0%
Scored 2+ rate
28.8%
9.5%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
0.82
63.5%
Conceding rate
59.1%
0.87
Goals against per game
0.88
59.0%
Conceding rate
60.6%
1.07
Goals against per game
0.78
63.3%
Conceding rate
59.4%
74
History Matches
66
1.03
Conceded Mean
0.82
1.05
Conceded Std
0.80
25.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.2%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.5%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
0.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
41.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
41.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
66
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.33
Goal Difference Std
1.36
1.03
Stability score
1.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
66
19
Lead Matches
21
73.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.2%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.83
19
Trailing Matches
6
36.8%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.18
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.10
Rest days
81.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
30
Matches
32
1.47
PPG
1.63
40.0%
Win rate
43.8%
26.7%
Draw rate
31.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
63.3%
Over 1.5 rate
59.4%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
30
Current Competition Matches
32
1.47
Current Competition PPG
1.63
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.34
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.05
Portability PPG Range
0.15
95.05
Portability Score
86.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-16.27
PPG-0.14
GF-0.07
GA0.21
PPG-0.16
PPG0.11
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate4.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.65
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches8
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-0.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.08
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate20.2%
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.16
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.34
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score8.43
Rest days2.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO-16.27
Current Opponent ELO16.27
Current ELO Difference-32.54
Expected score-0.05
History Matches8
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportivo Armenio

L
Deportivo Armenio0–1Argentino Quilmes24 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Armenio 47% · missed
W
Deportivo Armenio1–0Villa San Carlos30 Aug · home
Pick: Deportivo Armenio 46% · hit
L
Liniers3–1Deportivo Armenio26 Aug · away
Pick: Liniers 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sportivo Italiano

L
Excursionistas4–0Sportivo Italiano24 Oct · away
Pick: Excursionistas 47% · hit
W
Sportivo Italiano2–0Talleres Remedios4 Oct · home
Pick: Sportivo Italiano 45% · hit
L
Sportivo Italiano0–2Defensores Unidos25 Aug · home
Pick: Sportivo Italiano 61% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Deportivo Armenio and Sportivo Italiano meet in Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Armenia Stadium, Buenos Aires. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Deportivo Armenio win 33.0%, draw 34.2%, Sportivo Italiano win 32.8%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 37.7%. Both teams to score: 44.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.