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Primera B Metropolitana Argentina Quarter-finals 2026

Villa Dalmine vs Deportivo Camioneros

Villa Dalmine Home · Elo 1,568
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportivo Camioneros Away · Elo 1,609
Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini, Buenos Aires Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Villa Dalmine win
Villa Dalmine winPick
35.5%
Draw
32.1%
Deportivo Camioneros win
32.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.0%
No60.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.534.0%
Under 2.566.0%

How much we know

Villa Dalmine history70 matches
Deportivo Camioneros history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Villa Dalmine are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Deportivo Camioneros are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,609 against 1,568. On rating alone Deportivo Camioneros would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Deportivo Camioneros score more

    1.06 goals a game over 70 matches for Villa Dalmine, against 1.33 over 58 for Deportivo Camioneros.

  • Deportivo Camioneros concede fewer

    Villa Dalmine concede 0.90 a game, Deportivo Camioneros 0.60.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    30% of Villa Dalmine matches, against 31% for Deportivo Camioneros. The model puts this match at 34% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Villa Dalmine
Deportivo Camioneros@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1568.4
ELO
1608.8
70
ELO · Matches
58
1568.4
Current Team ELO
1608.8
1608.8
Current Opponent ELO
1568.4
-40.41
Current ELO Difference
40.41
0.44
Expected score
0.56
70
History Matches
58
0.05
Residual Mean
0.09
53.95
Overperformance
56.70
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.10
0.90
Goals for per game
1.50
0.40
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
0.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
58
1.57
PPG
1.97
41.4%
Win rate
55.2%
32.9%
Draw rate
31.0%
25.7%
Loss rate
13.8%
61.4%
Over 1.5 rate
58.6%
30.0%
Over 2.5 rate
31.0%
12.9%
Over 3.5 rate
15.5%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
29
1.72
PPG
1.79
47.2%
Win rate
44.8%
30.6%
Draw rate
44.8%
22.2%
Loss rate
10.3%
52.8%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
27.8%
Over 2.5 rate
27.6%
5.6%
Over 3.5 rate
13.8%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
36
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.06
Goals for per game
1.33
67.1%
Scoring rate
74.1%
41.4%
BTTS rate
32.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.24
69.4%
Scoring rate
75.9%
41.7%
BTTS rate
37.9%
1.09
Goals for per game
1.19
65.6%
Scoring rate
71.0%
31.3%
BTTS rate
35.5%
70
History Matches
58
1.06
Goals Mean
1.33
0.95
Goals Std
1.10
67.1%
Scored 1+ rate
74.1%
31.4%
Scored 2+ rate
39.7%
4.3%
Scored 3+ rate
13.8%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.90
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Conceding rate
39.7%
0.75
Goals against per game
0.66
58.3%
Conceding rate
41.4%
0.50
Goals against per game
0.65
43.8%
Conceding rate
41.9%
70
History Matches
58
0.90
Conceded Mean
0.60
0.96
Conceded Std
0.93
21.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
13.8%
5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.4%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
0.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.3%
32.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
58.6%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
58.1%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.3%
32.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
58.6%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
58
0.98
Result entropy
0.88
1.37
Goal Difference Std
1.44
1.69
Stability score
12.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
58
18
Lead Matches
22
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.94
15
Trailing Matches
6
40.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.24
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.13
Rest days
83.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
44
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.08
24
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
32
Matches
31
1.84
PPG
1.81
50.0%
Win rate
48.4%
34.4%
Draw rate
35.5%
15.6%
Loss rate
16.1%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.1%
21.9%
Over 2.5 rate
32.3%
6.3%
Over 3.5 rate
12.9%
1.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
32
Current Competition Matches
31
1.84
Current Competition PPG
1.81
0.59
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.55
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.42
66.59
Portability Score
70.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-40.41
PPG-0.39
GF-0.27
GA0.30
PPG0.04
PPG-0.07
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate7.0%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate6.4%
History Matches12
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches12
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate7.6%
Conceded 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches12
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-10.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.54
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.04
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.05
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-3.62
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO-40.41
Current Opponent ELO40.41
Current ELO Difference-80.82
Expected score-0.12
History Matches12
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Villa Dalmine

W
Villa Dalmine1–0San Martín Burzaco24 Oct · home
Pick: Villa Dalmine 50% · hit
D
Argentino de Merlo0–0Villa Dalmine30 Aug · away
Pick: Villa Dalmine 41% · missed
D
Villa Dalmine0–0Talleres Remedios25 Aug · home
Pick: Villa Dalmine 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Deportivo Camioneros

L
Arsenal Sarandi2–1Deportivo Camioneros24 Oct · away
Pick: Arsenal Sarandi 39% · hit
W
Deportivo Camioneros2–0Comunicaciones26 Aug · home
Pick: Deportivo Camioneros 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Villa Dalmine and Deportivo Camioneros meet in Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini, Buenos Aires. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Villa Dalmine win 35.5%, draw 32.1%, Deportivo Camioneros win 32.4%. The pick is Villa Dalmine win. Over 2.5 goals: 34.0%. Both teams to score: 40.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.