ScoreProb
Liga 3 Georgia Round 27 2026

Didube 2014 vs Varketili

Didube 2014 Home · Elo 1,514
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Varketili Away · Elo 1,637
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Varketili win
Didube 2014 win
20.4%
Draw
19.3%
Varketili winPick
60.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.8%
Under 2.543.2%

How much we know

Didube 2014 history49 matches
Varketili history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Varketili are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Varketili are rated 123 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,637 against 1,514. On rating alone Varketili would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Varketili score more

    1.61 goals a game over 49 matches for Didube 2014, against 2.20 over 51 for Varketili.

  • Varketili concede fewer

    Didube 2014 concede 1.41 a game, Varketili 0.84.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Didube 2014 matches, against 57% for Varketili. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Didube 2014
Varketili@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1513.9
ELO
1637.0
49
ELO · Matches
51
1513.9
Current Team ELO
1637.0
1637.0
Current Opponent ELO
1513.9
-123.1
Current ELO Difference
123.1
0.33
Expected score
0.67
49
History Matches
51
0.01
Residual Mean
0.13
51.05
Overperformance
59.54
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
2.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.50
1.70
Goals for per game
2.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.09
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.59
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.15
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
51
1.49
PPG
2.12
40.8%
Win rate
62.7%
26.5%
Draw rate
23.5%
32.7%
Loss rate
13.7%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
63.3%
Over 2.5 rate
56.9%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.56
PPG
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
68.0%
36.0%
Draw rate
16.0%
24.0%
Loss rate
16.0%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.61
Goals for per game
2.20
81.6%
Scoring rate
86.3%
59.2%
BTTS rate
51.0%
1.76
Goals for per game
2.12
84.0%
Scoring rate
92.0%
48.0%
BTTS rate
56.0%
1.71
Goals for per game
2.65
82.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
58.8%
BTTS rate
52.9%
49
History Matches
51
1.61
Goals Mean
2.20
1.24
Goals Std
1.66
81.6%
Scored 1+ rate
86.3%
49.0%
Scored 2+ rate
62.7%
18.4%
Scored 3+ rate
37.3%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
2.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.41
Goals against per game
0.84
71.4%
Conceding rate
56.9%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.00
56.0%
Conceding rate
64.0%
1.18
Goals against per game
0.53
64.7%
Conceding rate
52.9%
49
History Matches
51
1.41
Conceded Mean
0.84
1.35
Conceded Std
0.96
38.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.6%
18.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.8%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.7%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.0%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.7%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
51
0.99
Result entropy
0.82
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.94
1.40
Stability score
17.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
50
18
Lead Matches
25
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
88.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.92
11
Trailing Matches
5
18.2%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.18
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.88
Rest days
84.71
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
31
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.26
17
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
1.71
PPG
2.53
47.1%
Win rate
76.5%
29.4%
Draw rate
23.5%
23.5%
Loss rate
0.0%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
17
Current Competition Matches
17
1.71
Current Competition PPG
2.53
0.53
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.12
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.27
Portability PPG Range
0.60
78.58
Portability Score
62.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-123.1
PPG-0.63
GF-0.58
GA0.57
PPG-0.82
PPG-0.64
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate4.6%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.74
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate21.1%
Conceded 3+ rate10.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.05
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.16
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score-16.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.82
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.59
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.32
Portability Score15.93
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Current Team ELO-123.1
Current Opponent ELO123.1
Current ELO Difference-246.2
Expected score-0.34
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Didube 2014

L
Didube 20140–1Gonio23 Oct · home
Pick: Gonio 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Varketili

D
Guria0–0Varketili16 Oct · away
Pick: Guria 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Didube 2014 and Varketili meet in Liga 3 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Didube 2014 win 20.4%, draw 19.3%, Varketili win 60.3%. The pick is Varketili win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.8%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.