ScoreProb
Liga 3 Georgia Round 27 2026

Betlemi vs Gonio

Betlemi Home · Elo 1,381
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gonio Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gonio win
Betlemi win
11.8%
Draw
13.9%
Gonio winPick
74.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.5%
Under 2.535.5%

How much we know

Betlemi history47 matches
Gonio history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (74.3%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Gonio are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gonio are rated 123 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,504 against 1,381. On rating alone Gonio would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Gonio score more

    1.06 goals a game over 47 matches for Betlemi, against 1.32 over 56 for Gonio.

  • Gonio concede fewer

    Betlemi concede 2.40 a game, Gonio 1.29.

  • Betlemi games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Betlemi matches, against 48% for Gonio. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Betlemi
Gonio@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1380.8
ELO
1504.2
47
ELO · Matches
56
1380.8
Current Team ELO
1504.2
1504.2
Current Opponent ELO
1380.8
-123.4
Current ELO Difference
123.4
0.33
Expected score
0.67
47
History Matches
56
-0.13
Residual Mean
0.01
40.95
Overperformance
50.58
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
3.60
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
2.00
0.70
Goals for per game
2.30
2.80
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
56
0.72
PPG
1.32
14.9%
Win rate
35.7%
27.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
57.4%
Loss rate
39.3%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
70.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.2%
48.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
27
0.86
PPG
1.30
18.2%
Win rate
29.6%
31.8%
Draw rate
40.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
29.6%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
22
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.06
Goals for per game
1.32
57.4%
Scoring rate
71.4%
46.8%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.22
63.6%
Scoring rate
70.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
48.1%
0.59
Goals for per game
1.65
41.2%
Scoring rate
82.4%
29.4%
BTTS rate
29.4%
47
History Matches
56
1.06
Goals Mean
1.32
1.19
Goals Std
1.26
57.4%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
29.8%
Scored 2+ rate
35.7%
12.8%
Scored 3+ rate
16.1%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.40
Goals against per game
1.29
85.1%
Conceding rate
73.2%
1.73
Goals against per game
1.22
81.8%
Conceding rate
74.1%
2.29
Goals against per game
0.71
82.4%
Conceding rate
41.2%
47
History Matches
56
2.40
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.79
Conceded Std
1.16
66.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.7%
40.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
1.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
42.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
58.8%
58.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
42.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
56
0.87
Result entropy
0.98
2.44
Goal Difference Std
2.05
12.84
Stability score
1.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
56
6
Lead Matches
16
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.79
22
Trailing Matches
19
13.6%
Non-loss rate
36.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.04
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
1.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.88
Rest days
84.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
35
0.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
18
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
0.59
PPG
2.00
11.8%
Win rate
58.8%
23.5%
Draw rate
23.5%
64.7%
Loss rate
17.6%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
17
Current Competition Matches
17
0.59
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.71
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.94
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.23
Portability PPG Range
0.97
81.09
Portability Score
50.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-123.4
PPG-0.60
GF-0.26
GA1.12
PPG-1.41
PPG-0.43
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate14.0%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.61
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean1.12
Conceded Std0.63
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate30.2%
Conceded 3+ rate29.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.03
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score11.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.63
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.41
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.65
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-0.74
Portability Score30.39
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Current Team ELO-123.4
Current Opponent ELO123.4
Current ELO Difference-246.8
Expected score-0.34
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-9.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Betlemi

L
FC Iberia 1999 II10–1Betlemi30 Oct · away
Pick: FC Iberia 1999 II 78% · hit
L
Iveria Khashuri8–0Betlemi16 Oct · away
Pick: Iveria Khashuri 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gonio

W
Gonio3–0Merani Tbilisi30 Oct · home
Pick: Gonio 58% · hit
W
Didube 20140–1Gonio23 Oct · away
Pick: Gonio 43% · hit
W
Gonio1–0Irao16 Oct · home
Pick: Gonio 43% · hit
L
WIT Georgia2–0Gonio8 Oct · away
Pick: WIT Georgia 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Betlemi and Gonio meet in Liga 3 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Betlemi win 11.8%, draw 13.9%, Gonio win 74.3%. The pick is Gonio win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.5%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.