Iberia 2010 vs Guria
Match result probability Model pick: Guria win
Iberia 2010 win
3.8%
Draw
9.3%
Guria winPick
86.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes42.3%
No57.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.571.9%
Under 2.528.1%
How much we know
Iberia 2010 history19 matches
Guria history21 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Guria
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
- Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre6 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (86.9%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.
Why Guria are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Guria are rated 186 Elo points higher
Elo 1,568 against 1,382. On rating alone Guria would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.
-
Guria score far more
0.84 goals a game over 19 matches for Iberia 2010, against 2.71 over 21 for Guria.
-
Guria concede fewer
Iberia 2010 concede 2.74 a game, Guria 0.67.
-
Guria games more often go over 2.5 goals
53% of Iberia 2010 matches, against 62% for Guria. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Guria@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1381.5
ELO
1567.6
19
ELO · Matches
21
1381.5
Current Team ELO
1567.6
1567.6
Current Opponent ELO
1381.5
-186.1
Current ELO Difference
186.1
0.26
Expected score
0.74
19
History Matches
21
-0.32
Residual Mean
0.17
34.62
Overperformance
58.71
-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
2.40
1.30
Goals for per game
3.00
2.60
Goals against per game
0.80
10.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.14
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.74
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.36
Overall performance9 signals 90
19
Matches
21
0.32
PPG
2.14
5.3%
Win rate
66.7%
15.8%
Draw rate
14.3%
78.9%
Loss rate
19.0%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
47.4%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
Venue performance10 signals 100
9
Matches
9
0.33
PPG
2.11
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
11.1%
66.7%
Loss rate
22.2%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
9
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.84
Goals for per game
2.71
42.1%
Scoring rate
81.0%
42.1%
BTTS rate
42.9%
0.56
Goals for per game
2.11
44.4%
Scoring rate
88.9%
44.4%
BTTS rate
66.7%
0.65
Goals for per game
2.72
41.2%
Scoring rate
77.8%
41.2%
BTTS rate
38.9%
19
History Matches
21
0.84
Goals Mean
2.71
1.31
Goals Std
2.25
42.1%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
21.1%
Scored 2+ rate
61.9%
10.5%
Scored 3+ rate
38.1%
0.56
Venue Goals Mean
2.11
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
2.74
Goals against per game
0.67
94.7%
Conceding rate
52.4%
1.89
Goals against per game
0.89
88.9%
Conceding rate
77.8%
2.94
Goals against per game
0.61
94.1%
Conceding rate
50.0%
19
History Matches
21
2.74
Conceded Mean
0.67
1.83
Conceded Std
0.71
68.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
14.3%
47.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.89
Venue Conceded Mean
0.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.6%
57.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
55.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
58.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.6%
57.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
55.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
19
History Matches
21
0.58
Result entropy
0.79
2.29
Goal Difference Std
2.50
42.38
Stability score
21.34
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
19
Eligible Matches
21
1
Lead Matches
14
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.86
11
Trailing Matches
0
0.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
1.52
1.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.10
0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.19
1.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.83
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
11
Normal Rest History Matches
12
0.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.08
7
Long Rest History Matches
8
0.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.13
Competition & season17 signals 170
17
Matches
18
0.18
PPG
2.17
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
17.6%
Draw rate
16.7%
82.4%
Loss rate
16.7%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
17
Current Competition Matches
18
0.18
Current Competition PPG
2.17
-2.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.11
2
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.08
—
Portability PPG Range
0.17
—
Portability Score
85.71
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
19
Clean History Matches
21
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-186.1
PPG-1.83
GF-1.87
GA2.07
PPG-1.99
PPG-1.78
PPG-1.20
PPG-2.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.42
Failed-to-score rate38.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate44.4%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-1.87
Goals Std-0.94
Scored 1+ rate-0.39
Scored 2+ rate-0.41
Scored 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Goals Mean-1.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean2.07
Conceded Std1.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.42
Conceded 2+ rate54.1%
Conceded 3+ rate47.4%
Venue Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.00
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.21
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score21.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.01
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate14.3%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches11
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-1.16
First Half Goals Against Mean1.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.85
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.99
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.41
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days7.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.72
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.84
Current Team ELO-186.1
Current Opponent ELO186.1
Current ELO Difference-372.2
Expected score-0.49
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.49
Overperformance-24.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.49
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Iberia 2010
W
Iberia 20102–0Kolkheti Khobi30 Oct · home
Pick: Kolkheti Khobi 55% · missed L
Margveti 20061–0Iberia 201023 Oct · away
Pick: Margveti 2006 70% · hit W
Iberia 20103–0Gardabani16 Oct · home
Pick: Gardabani 47% · missed L
WIT Georgia2–1Iberia 201026 Aug · away
Pick: WIT Georgia 87% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Guria
W
Guria1–0WIT Georgia30 Oct · home
Pick: Guria 55% · hit D
Kolkheti Khobi2–2Guria23 Oct · away
Pick: Guria 80% · missed D
Guria0–0Varketili16 Oct · home
Pick: Guria 36% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Iberia 2010 and Guria meet in Liga 3 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Iberia 2010 win 3.8%, draw 9.3%, Guria win 86.9%. The pick is Guria win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.9%. Both teams to score: 42.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.