ScoreProb
Liga 3 Georgia Round 27 2026

Gardabani vs FC Iberia 1999 II

Gardabani Home · Elo 1,383
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Iberia 1999 II Away · Elo 1,530
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Iberia 1999 II win
Gardabani win
12.7%
Draw
14.3%
FC Iberia 1999 II winPick
73.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.3%
No50.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.2%
Under 2.538.8%

How much we know

Gardabani history47 matches
FC Iberia 1999 II history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.0%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why FC Iberia 1999 II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Iberia 1999 II are rated 147 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,383. On rating alone FC Iberia 1999 II would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • FC Iberia 1999 II score more

    1.09 goals a game over 47 matches for Gardabani, against 1.25 over 60 for FC Iberia 1999 II.

  • FC Iberia 1999 II concede fewer

    Gardabani concede 2.28 a game, FC Iberia 1999 II 1.07.

  • Gardabani games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Gardabani matches, against 42% for FC Iberia 1999 II. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gardabani
FC Iberia 1999 II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1383.2
ELO
1530.2
47
ELO · Matches
60
1383.2
Current Team ELO
1530.2
1530.2
Current Opponent ELO
1383.2
-147.0
Current ELO Difference
147.0
0.30
Expected score
0.70
47
History Matches
60
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.03
41.25
Overperformance
51.91
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
4.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.90
0.70
Goals for per game
1.60
3.40
Goals against per game
0.70
10.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.74
3.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
2.06
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
60
0.89
PPG
1.42
23.4%
Win rate
36.7%
19.1%
Draw rate
31.7%
57.4%
Loss rate
31.7%
78.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.7%
63.8%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
44.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
2.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
30
1.17
PPG
1.27
34.8%
Win rate
36.7%
13.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
52.2%
Loss rate
46.7%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
23
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
1.25
59.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
51.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.23
65.2%
Scoring rate
70.0%
52.2%
BTTS rate
53.3%
0.82
Goals for per game
1.50
47.1%
Scoring rate
77.8%
41.2%
BTTS rate
38.9%
47
History Matches
60
1.09
Goals Mean
1.25
1.25
Goals Std
1.29
59.6%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
29.8%
Scored 2+ rate
35.0%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
11.7%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.28
Goals against per game
1.07
85.1%
Conceding rate
71.7%
1.91
Goals against per game
1.47
82.6%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.24
Goals against per game
0.67
82.4%
Conceding rate
50.0%
47
History Matches
60
2.28
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.84
Conceded Std
0.95
55.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
34.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.7%
1.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
52.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
60
0.89
Result entropy
1.00
2.46
Goal Difference Std
1.70
11.27
Stability score
0.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
60
9
Lead Matches
17
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.84
20
Trailing Matches
18
5.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
1.04
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
1.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
42
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
18
0.76
PPG
1.94
17.6%
Win rate
55.6%
23.5%
Draw rate
27.8%
58.8%
Loss rate
16.7%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
17
Current Competition Matches
18
0.76
Current Competition PPG
1.94
-1.41
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.83
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.24
Portability PPG Range
0.81
80.95
Portability Score
55.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-147.0
PPG-0.52
GF-0.16
GA1.21
PPG-1.18
PPG-0.09
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches-13
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.10
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean1.21
Conceded Std0.90
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate30.3%
Conceded 3+ rate27.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.28
History Matches-13
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.76
Stability score11.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate23.5%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.28
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.66
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.18
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-0.58
Portability Score25.79
Rest days8.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Current Team ELO-147.0
Current Opponent ELO147.0
Current ELO Difference-294.0
Expected score-0.40
History Matches-13
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-10.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gardabani

L
Iberia 20103–0Gardabani16 Oct · away
Pick: Gardabani 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Iberia 1999 II

W
FC Iberia 1999 II10–1Betlemi30 Oct · home
Pick: FC Iberia 1999 II 78% · hit
W
Merani Tbilisi0–4FC Iberia 1999 II23 Oct · away
Pick: FC Iberia 1999 II 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gardabani and FC Iberia 1999 II meet in Liga 3 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Gardabani win 12.7%, draw 14.3%, FC Iberia 1999 II win 73.0%. The pick is FC Iberia 1999 II win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.2%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.