ScoreProb
Liga 3 Georgia Round 27 2026

Merani Tbilisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi II

Merani Tbilisi Home · Elo 1,470
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dinamo Tbilisi II Away · Elo 1,443
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dinamo Tbilisi II win
Merani Tbilisi win
36.8%
Draw
25.2%
Dinamo Tbilisi II winPick
38.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%
No41.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.5%
Under 2.541.5%

How much we know

Merani Tbilisi history48 matches
Dinamo Tbilisi II history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Dinamo Tbilisi II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Merani Tbilisi are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,470 against 1,443. On rating alone Merani Tbilisi would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.31 goals a game over 48 matches for Merani Tbilisi, against 1.27 over 56 for Dinamo Tbilisi II.

  • Merani Tbilisi concede fewer

    Merani Tbilisi concede 1.69 a game, Dinamo Tbilisi II 1.96.

  • Dinamo Tbilisi II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Merani Tbilisi matches, against 68% for Dinamo Tbilisi II. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Merani Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1470.4
ELO
1443.2
48
ELO · Matches
56
1470.4
Current Team ELO
1443.2
1443.2
Current Opponent ELO
1470.4
27.15
Current ELO Difference
-27.15
0.54
Expected score
0.46
48
History Matches
56
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.05
47.83
Overperformance
46.45
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
2.40
2.80
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.90
0.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.99
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
56
1.21
PPG
0.98
31.3%
Win rate
25.0%
27.1%
Draw rate
23.2%
41.7%
Loss rate
51.8%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
67.9%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
28
1.50
PPG
1.00
41.7%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
24
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.27
66.7%
Scoring rate
73.2%
45.8%
BTTS rate
66.1%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.36
75.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
54.2%
BTTS rate
64.3%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.47
64.7%
Scoring rate
70.6%
23.5%
BTTS rate
58.8%
48
History Matches
56
1.31
Goals Mean
1.27
1.31
Goals Std
1.09
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
73.2%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
35.7%
22.9%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.69
Goals against per game
1.96
75.0%
Conceding rate
91.1%
1.54
Goals against per game
2.18
79.2%
Conceding rate
89.3%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.35
52.9%
Conceding rate
82.4%
48
History Matches
56
1.69
Conceded Mean
1.96
1.60
Conceded Std
1.22
47.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.9%
20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.1%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
2.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
56
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
2.21
Goal Difference Std
1.67
1.51
Stability score
6.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
56
11
Lead Matches
13
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.67
15
Trailing Matches
24
6.7%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.92
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.88
Rest days
84.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
30
Normal Rest History Matches
37
0.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
17
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
1.53
PPG
1.41
41.2%
Win rate
41.2%
29.4%
Draw rate
17.6%
29.4%
Loss rate
41.2%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
17
Current Competition Matches
17
1.53
Current Competition PPG
1.41
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.12
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.46
Portability PPG Range
0.63
68.36
Portability Score
61.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO27.15
PPG0.23
GF0.04
GA-0.28
PPG0.12
PPG0.50
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Failed-to-score rate6.5%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate10.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.94
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std0.37
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.62
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.55
Stability score-5.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate18.9%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.12
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.12
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score7.16
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.70
Current Team ELO27.15
Current Opponent ELO-27.15
Current ELO Difference54.31
Expected score0.08
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Merani Tbilisi

L
Gonio3–0Merani Tbilisi30 Oct · away
Pick: Gonio 58% · hit
L
Merani Tbilisi0–4FC Iberia 1999 II23 Oct · home
Pick: FC Iberia 1999 II 47% · hit
W
Lokomotivi Tbilisi1–2Merani Tbilisi16 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotivi Tbilisi 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dinamo Tbilisi II

D
Irao1–1Dinamo Tbilisi II23 Oct · away
Pick: Irao 55% · missed
W
Dinamo Tbilisi II3–1WIT Georgia16 Oct · home
Pick: WIT Georgia 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Merani Tbilisi and Dinamo Tbilisi II meet in Liga 3 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Merani Tbilisi win 36.8%, draw 25.2%, Dinamo Tbilisi II win 38.0%. The pick is Dinamo Tbilisi II win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.5%. Both teams to score: 58.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.