ScoreProb
UEFA Youth League World League Phase - 4 2026

Slavia Praha U19 vs Arsenal U19

Slavia Praha U19 Home · Elo 1,443
Full time
1–0
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Arsenal U19 Away · Elo 1,467
Football pitch Radotin - Artificial Grass Referee: A. Gasparyan Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Slavia Praha U19 win
Slavia Praha U19 winPick Result
54.2%
Draw
18.9%
Arsenal U19 win
26.9%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

1 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickSlavia Praha U19 win · 54.2%
What happenedSlavia Praha U19 win · we gave it 54.2%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 73.6%
What happenedUnder · 1 goal
Missed
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 66.2%
What happenedNo · 1–0
Missed

How surprising was it?

Result: Slavia Praha U19 win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

54%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 1.8
on average
A pick at 54% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

54'
Yellow cardA. Annous
SubstitutionA. Cedergren off · P. Potmesil on
55'
62'
SubstitutionT. Murisa off · I. Ibrahim on
62'
SubstitutionH. Abubakar off · J. Ogunnaike on
66'
Yellow cardM. Salmon
69'
Yellow cardI. Tyjon
70'
SubstitutionI. Tyjon off · M. Bernard on
SubstitutionM. Palascak off · A. Ilincic on
76'
SubstitutionB. Szywala off · I. Elsayed on
76'
SubstitutionM. Kotrba off · V. Skokan on
86'
SubstitutionO. Masek off · J. Smiga on
86'
90'
SubstitutionE. Nwaneri off · A. Donczew on
GoalM. Solarte · assist J. Kolisek
90+1'

Both teams to score

Yes66.2%
No33.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.6%
Under 2.526.4%

How much we know

Slavia Praha U19 history29 matches
Arsenal U19 history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 1–0One of our three picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Slavia Praha U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,443 against 1,467. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.79 goals a game over 29 matches for Slavia Praha U19, against 1.83 over 6 for Arsenal U19.

  • Slavia Praha U19 concede fewer

    Slavia Praha U19 concede 2.69 a game, Arsenal U19 3.00.

  • Arsenal U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    79% of Slavia Praha U19 matches, against 100% for Arsenal U19. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Slavia Praha U19
Arsenal U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1443.1
ELO
1467.0
29
ELO · Matches
6
1443.1
Current Team ELO
1467.0
1467.0
Current Opponent ELO
1443.1
-23.82
Current ELO Difference
23.82
0.47
Expected score
0.53
29
History Matches
6
-0.11
Residual Mean
-0.27
43.77
Overperformance
43.68
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
3.00
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
6
0.60
PPG
0.50
0.80
Goals for per game
1.83
2.40
Goals against per game
3.00
10.0%
Win rate
16.7%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.83
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.21
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
1.91
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.15
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.41
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.77
Overall performance9 signals
90
29
Matches
6
1.00
PPG
0.50
27.6%
Win rate
16.7%
17.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
55.2%
Loss rate
83.3%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
79.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
55.2%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
13
Matches
3
1.46
PPG
0.00
38.5%
Win rate
0.0%
30.8%
Draw rate
0.0%
30.8%
Loss rate
100.0%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
69.2%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
13
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.79
Goals for per game
1.83
79.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
72.4%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.77
Goals for per game
1.00
76.9%
Scoring rate
100.0%
69.2%
BTTS rate
100.0%
29
History Matches
6
1.79
Goals Mean
1.83
1.45
Goals Std
1.21
79.3%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
48.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
34.5%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.69
Goals against per game
3.00
86.2%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.33
76.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
29
History Matches
6
2.69
Conceded Mean
3.00
2.10
Conceded Std
1.15
72.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
41.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
3.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
29
History Matches
6
0.90
Result entropy
0.41
2.48
Goal Difference Std
1.77
10.21
Stability score
58.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
29
Eligible Matches
6
6
Lead Matches
2
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.61
Lead Points Retention
0.00
10
Trailing Matches
3
10.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
1.28
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
1.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.19
Rest days
329.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
13
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
11
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.13
Portability PPG Std
—
0.26
Portability PPG Range
—
79.25
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
29
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-23.82
PPG0.50
GF-0.04
GA-0.31
PPG1.46
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate13.8%
Failed-to-score rate20.7%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate23.1%
Failed-to-score rate23.1%
History Matches23
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate14.9%
Scored 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.03
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches23
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std0.95
Clean-sheet rate13.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.28
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.75
History Matches23
Result entropy0.49
Goal Difference Std0.71
Stability score-48.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches23
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.61
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate10.0%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches23
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-254.8
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches13
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO-23.82
Current Opponent ELO23.82
Current ELO Difference-47.64
Expected score-0.07
History Matches23
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Slavia Praha U19

L
Zbrojovka Brno U191–0Slavia Praha U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Zbrojovka Brno U19 51% · hit
W
Slavia Praha U193–2Zlín U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Slavia Praha U19 51% · hit
L
Slavia Praha U192–3Opava U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Opava U19 44% · hit
W
Fenerbahce U191–3Slavia Praha U1920 Oct · away
Pick: Fenerbahce U19 43% · missed
D
Mladá Boleslav U191–1Slavia Praha U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Mladá Boleslav U19 76% · missed

Arsenal U19

D
Bayern München U193–3Arsenal U1921 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern München U19 72% · missed
L
Arsenal U192–3Lille U1913 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal U19 53% · missed
W
Napoli U191–2Arsenal U199 Sep · away
Pick: Napoli U19 63% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

Slavia Praha U19 and Arsenal U19 finished 1–0 in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Slavia Praha U19 win 54.2%, draw 18.9%, Arsenal U19 win 26.9%. One of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.