ScoreProb
UEFA Youth League World League Phase - 4 2026

PSV U19 vs Club Brugge U19

PSV U19 Home · Elo 1,578
Full time
3–2
Half time 2–1
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Club Brugge U19 Away · Elo 1,581
De Herdgang, Eindhoven Referee: M. Erceg Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: PSV U19 win
PSV U19 winPick Result
49.7%
Draw
22.6%
Club Brugge U19 win
27.7%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

3 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickPSV U19 win · 49.7%
What happenedPSV U19 win · we gave it 49.7%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 62.2%
What happenedOver · 5 goals
Hit
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 55.4%
What happenedYes · 3–2
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: PSV U19 win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

50%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 2.0
on average
A pick at 50% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

2'
GoalC. Ossohou · assist W. Mike
23'
Yellow cardE. Fejokwu
Yellow cardE. Duran Can
24'
GoalM. Buyens · assist W. Ostrander
34'
GoalS. Dumbili · assist D. Stam
37'
46'
SubstitutionW. Mike off · N. Amengai on
46'
SubstitutionE. Fejokwu off · M. Elbay on
47'
GoalJ. Da Silva
Yellow cardM. Buyens
59'
61'
SubstitutionJ. Da Silva off · A. H. Kamara on
61'
SubstitutionM. Soria off · J. Mbambi on
Yellow cardS. Dumbili
63'
SubstitutionJ. Martina off · K. Penso on
75'
82'
Yellow cardA. Wins
SubstitutionA. Jones off · L. van Nistelrooy on
83'
SubstitutionW. Ostrander off · J. Colaes on
83'
SubstitutionS. Dumbili off · D. Ferreira on
83'
GoalL. van Nistelrooy · assist K. Penso
87'
89'
SubstitutionC. Ossohou off · E. Callens on
SubstitutionS. Ditmer off · T. Bens on
90+1'

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.2%
Under 2.537.8%

How much we know

PSV U19 history38 matches
Club Brugge U19 history11 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 3–2All three of our picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

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The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why PSV U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,578 against 1,581. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.11 goals a game over 38 matches for PSV U19, against 2.09 over 11 for Club Brugge U19.

  • Club Brugge U19 concede fewer

    PSV U19 concede 1.50 a game, Club Brugge U19 0.64.

  • PSV U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of PSV U19 matches, against 55% for Club Brugge U19. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 30 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
PSV U19
Club Brugge U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1577.6
ELO
1581.1
38
ELO · Matches
11
1577.6
Current Team ELO
1581.1
1581.1
Current Opponent ELO
1577.6
-3.44
Current ELO Difference
3.44
0.50
Expected score
0.50
38
History Matches
11
0.09
Residual Mean
0.36
56.01
Overperformance
62.78
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.35
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.60
3.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.50
2.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.30
Goals against per game
0.70
70.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
11
1.76
PPG
2.55
52.6%
Win rate
81.8%
18.4%
Draw rate
9.1%
28.9%
Loss rate
9.1%
89.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
73.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
47.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
6
1.76
PPG
2.50
52.9%
Win rate
83.3%
17.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
29.4%
Loss rate
16.7%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
17
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.11
Goals for per game
2.09
86.8%
Scoring rate
100.0%
68.4%
BTTS rate
45.5%
2.12
Goals for per game
2.33
82.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
58.8%
BTTS rate
33.3%
38
History Matches
11
2.11
Goals Mean
2.09
1.50
Goals Std
1.00
86.8%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
57.9%
Scored 2+ rate
63.6%
42.1%
Scored 3+ rate
36.4%
2.12
Venue Goals Mean
2.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.50
Goals against per game
0.64
78.9%
Conceding rate
45.5%
1.29
Goals against per game
0.50
70.6%
Conceding rate
33.3%
38
History Matches
11
1.50
Conceded Mean
0.64
1.21
Conceded Std
0.77
42.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.2%
21.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
0.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
54.5%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
54.5%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
54.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
11
0.92
Result entropy
0.55
2.01
Goal Difference Std
1.30
8.22
Stability score
45.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
11
9
Lead Matches
6
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
1.00
3
Trailing Matches
3
33.3%
Non-loss rate
100.0%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
66.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
11
1.19
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.18
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.27
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
158.0
Rest days
197.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
17
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.28
Portability PPG Std
—
0.63
Portability PPG Range
—
63.98
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
11
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-3.44
PPG-0.78
GF0.01
GA0.86
PPG-0.74
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate13.2%
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.37
Failed-to-score rate17.6%
History Matches27
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.50
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Goals Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.58
History Matches27
Conceded Mean0.86
Conceded Std0.44
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Conceded 2+ rate23.9%
Conceded 3+ rate21.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.79
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches27
Result entropy0.37
Goal Difference Std0.70
Stability score-37.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.79
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.67
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-39.82
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.59
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Current Team ELO-3.44
Current Opponent ELO3.44
Current ELO Difference-6.88
Expected score-0.01
History Matches27
Residual Mean-0.27
Overperformance-6.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

PSV U19

L
Porto U193–1PSV U1920 Oct · away
Pick: Porto U19 73% · hit
W
RB Leipzig U191–6PSV U1913 Oct · away
Pick: RB Leipzig U19 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Club Brugge U19

W
Club Brugge U194–2Lens U1921 Oct · home
Pick: Club Brugge U19 57% · hit
D
Internazionale U191–1Club Brugge U1913 Oct · away
Pick: Club Brugge U19 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

PSV U19 and Club Brugge U19 finished 3–2 in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 2–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: PSV U19 win 49.7%, draw 22.6%, Club Brugge U19 win 27.7%. All three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.