ScoreProb
UEFA Youth League World Semi-finals 2026

København U19 vs Dinamo Tbilisi U19

København U19 Home · Elo 1,489
After penalties
3–0
Half time 2–0 · Penalties 4–5
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Dinamo Tbilisi U19 Away · Elo 1,527
Valby Idraetspark, Copenhagen Referee: A. Tsakalidis Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: København U19 win
København U19 win Result
28.5%
Draw
25.8%
Dinamo Tbilisi U19 winPick
45.7%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

1 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickDinamo Tbilisi U19 win · 45.7%
What happenedKøbenhavn U19 win · we gave it 28.5%
Missed
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 59.8%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Hit
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 50.4%
What happenedNo · 3–0
Missed

How surprising was it?

Result: København U19 win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.

28%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 3.5
on average
A pick at 46% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

GoalA. Odefalk
3'
19'
Yellow cardR. Aleksidze
Yellow cardL. Heriba
28'
GoalA. Odefalk · assist E. Mehicic
38'
40'
Yellow cardS. Mikautadze
SubstitutionD. Ait Chiekh off · V. Moritzen on
43'
44'
Red cardA. Nizharadze
46'
SubstitutionT. Kvaratskhelia off · S. Diakonidze on
46'
SubstitutionN. Aduashvili off · K. Kakashvili on
Yellow cardT. Christensen
51'
57'
SubstitutionR. Aleksidze off · G. Kurdovanidze on
58'
Yellow cardG. Lomidze
SubstitutionL. Heriba off · I. Holalem on
61'
GoalE. Mehicic · assist I. Holalem
71'
Yellow cardS. Fetterlein
77'
SubstitutionT. Reeh off · G. Santos on
81'
SubstitutionT. Christensen off · W. Norlov on
81'
Yellow cardG. Santos
82'
90+1'
SubstitutionS. Mikautadze off · G. Gogua on
90+2'
Yellow cardG. Kurdovanidze

Both teams to score

Yes50.4%
No49.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.8%
Under 2.540.2%

How much we know

København U19 history7 matches
Dinamo Tbilisi U19 history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 3–0One of our three picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

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The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dinamo Tbilisi U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dinamo Tbilisi U19 are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,527 against 1,489. On rating alone Dinamo Tbilisi U19 would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Dinamo Tbilisi U19 score more

    1.57 goals a game over 7 matches for København U19, against 2.00 over 6 for Dinamo Tbilisi U19.

  • Dinamo Tbilisi U19 concede fewer

    København U19 concede 1.86 a game, Dinamo Tbilisi U19 1.00.

  • København U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of København U19 matches, against 33% for Dinamo Tbilisi U19. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 Dec 2025 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
København U19
Dinamo Tbilisi U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.7
ELO
1527.1
7
ELO · Matches
6
1488.7
Current Team ELO
1527.1
1527.1
Current Opponent ELO
1488.7
-38.41
Current ELO Difference
38.41
0.44
Expected score
0.56
7
History Matches
6
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.22
47.57
Overperformance
55.18
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
7
Matches
6
1.00
PPG
2.17
1.57
Goals for per game
2.00
1.86
Goals against per game
1.00
28.6%
Win rate
66.7%
1.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.76
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.29
1.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.15
0.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.79
2.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
7
Matches
6
1.00
PPG
2.17
28.6%
Win rate
66.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
57.1%
Loss rate
16.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
2.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.57
Goals for per game
2.00
57.1%
Scoring rate
83.3%
42.9%
BTTS rate
33.3%
0.67
Goals for per game
2.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
7
History Matches
6
1.57
Goals Mean
2.00
1.76
Goals Std
1.29
57.1%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
0.67
Venue Goals Mean
2.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.86
Goals against per game
1.00
85.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
7
History Matches
6
1.86
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.83
Conceded Std
1.15
85.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
7
History Matches
6
0.87
Result entropy
0.79
2.43
Goal Difference Std
1.63
13.01
Stability score
21.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
6
2
Lead Matches
4
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.83
4
Trailing Matches
1
25.0%
Non-loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
100.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
329.1
Rest days
329.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
1
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
6
Long Rest History Matches
4
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
7
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-38.41
PPG-1.17
GF-0.43
GA0.86
PPG-2.00
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.17
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.36
Failed-to-score rate26.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate66.7%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std0.47
Scored 1+ rate-0.26
Scored 2+ rate-0.24
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-1.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.86
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.36
Conceded 2+ rate52.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches1
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.80
Stability score-8.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.80
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.75
Trailing Win Rate-1.00
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.83
Current Team ELO-38.41
Current Opponent ELO38.41
Current ELO Difference-76.83
Expected score-0.11
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.32
Overperformance-7.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

København U19

L
Dinamo Tbilisi U193–0København U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Tbilisi U19 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dinamo Tbilisi U19

W
Dinamo Tbilisi U193–0København U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Tbilisi U19 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

København U19 and Dinamo Tbilisi U19 finished 3–0 in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 2–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: København U19 win 28.5%, draw 25.8%, Dinamo Tbilisi U19 win 45.7%. One of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.