ScoreProb
3. SNL - East Slovenia East - 13 2026

Dobrovce vs Podvinci

Dobrovce Home · Elo 1,388
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Podvinci Away · Elo 1,442
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Podvinci win
Dobrovce win
22.6%
Draw
22.3%
Podvinci winPick
55.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%

How much we know

Dobrovce history19 matches
Podvinci history22 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Podvinci are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Podvinci are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,442 against 1,388. On rating alone Podvinci would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.79 goals a game over 19 matches for Dobrovce, against 0.86 over 22 for Podvinci.

  • Podvinci concede fewer

    Dobrovce concede 2.63 a game, Podvinci 1.68.

  • Dobrovce games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Dobrovce matches, against 41% for Podvinci. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dobrovce
Podvinci
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1387.6
ELO
1442.4
19
ELO · Matches
22
1387.6
Current Team ELO
1442.4
1442.4
Current Opponent ELO
1387.6
-54.74
Current ELO Difference
54.74
0.42
Expected score
0.58
19
History Matches
22
-0.29
Residual Mean
-0.14
35.95
Overperformance
42.84
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.80
Goals against per game
2.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
0.70
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
2.70
Goals against per game
2.20
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
19
Matches
22
0.32
PPG
0.82
5.3%
Win rate
18.2%
15.8%
Draw rate
27.3%
78.9%
Loss rate
54.5%
89.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
12
0.40
PPG
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
25.0%
10.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
10
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.79
Goals for per game
0.86
52.6%
Scoring rate
68.2%
52.6%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.92
60.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
19
History Matches
22
0.79
Goals Mean
0.86
0.89
Goals Std
0.76
52.6%
Scored 1+ rate
68.2%
21.1%
Scored 2+ rate
13.6%
5.3%
Scored 3+ rate
4.5%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.63
Goals against per game
1.68
100.0%
Conceding rate
81.8%
2.80
Goals against per game
1.83
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
19
History Matches
22
2.63
Conceded Mean
1.68
1.35
Conceded Std
1.36
73.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.9%
57.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.8%
2.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
19
History Matches
22
0.58
Result entropy
0.91
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.47
42.38
Stability score
9.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
22
4
Lead Matches
2
25.0%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.42
Lead Points Retention
0.00
13
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
1.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
1.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.18
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.08
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
9
Normal Rest History Matches
11
0.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
8
Long Rest History Matches
10
0.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
19
Clean History Matches
22
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-54.74
PPG-0.50
GF-0.07
GA0.95
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate15.6%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate7.4%
Scored 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.07
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.95
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate32.8%
Conceded 3+ rate26.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.97
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.33
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score32.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.42
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.40
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO-54.74
Current Opponent ELO54.74
Current ELO Difference-109.5
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-6.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dobrovce

L
Čarda Martjanci3–1Dobrovce31 Oct · away
Pick: Čarda Martjanci 69% · hit
D
Dobrovce1–1Rače28 Oct · home
Pick: Rače 59% · missed
L
Dobrovce3–4Šmartno17 Oct · home
Pick: Šmartno 63% · hit
L
Fužinar5–1Dobrovce29 Aug · away
Pick: Fužinar 83% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Podvinci

W
Podvinci3–1Fužinar31 Oct · home
Pick: Fužinar 51% · missed
W
Limbuš Pekre1–3Podvinci28 Oct · away
Pick: Limbuš Pekre 46% · missed
L
Podvinci0–1Radomlje24 Oct · home
Pick: Radomlje 43% · hit
D
Čarda Martjanci2–2Podvinci4 Oct · away
Pick: Čarda Martjanci 52% · missed
W
Podvinci4–1Hajdina30 Aug · home
Pick: Hajdina 43% · missed

About this match

Dobrovce and Podvinci meet in 3. SNL - East on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dobrovce win 22.6%, draw 22.3%, Podvinci win 55.1%. The pick is Podvinci win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.8%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.