ScoreProb
3. SNL - East Slovenia East - 13 2026

NK Ormoz vs Korotan Prevalje

NK Ormoz Home · Elo 1,519
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Korotan Prevalje Away · Elo 1,533
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: NK Ormoz win
NK Ormoz winPick
38.8%
Draw
26.7%
Korotan Prevalje win
34.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.8%
No35.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.9%
Under 2.527.1%

How much we know

NK Ormoz history2 matches
Korotan Prevalje history19 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why NK Ormoz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,519 against 1,533. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • NK Ormoz score far more

    3.00 goals a game over 2 matches for NK Ormoz, against 1.84 over 19 for Korotan Prevalje.

  • Defences are close

    NK Ormoz concede 1.50 a game, Korotan Prevalje 1.63.

  • NK Ormoz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of NK Ormoz matches, against 68% for Korotan Prevalje. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
NK Ormoz
Korotan Prevalje
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.9
ELO
1532.9
2
ELO · Matches
19
1518.9
Current Team ELO
1532.9
1532.9
Current Opponent ELO
1518.9
-13.98
Current ELO Difference
13.98
0.48
Expected score
0.52
2
History Matches
19
0.47
Residual Mean
0.09
54.29
Overperformance
54.37
0.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.40
3.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
2.40
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2
Matches
10
3.00
PPG
1.70
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.79
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
19
3.00
PPG
1.79
100.0%
Win rate
52.6%
0.0%
Draw rate
21.1%
0.0%
Loss rate
26.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
52.6%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
9
3.00
PPG
1.78
100.0%
Win rate
55.6%
0.0%
Draw rate
11.1%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.71
1
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
3.00
Goals for per game
1.84
100.0%
Scoring rate
84.2%
100.0%
BTTS rate
52.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
100.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2
History Matches
19
3.00
Goals Mean
1.84
1.00
Goals Std
1.23
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.2%
100.0%
Scored 2+ rate
57.9%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
31.6%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.63
100.0%
Conceding rate
63.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
2
History Matches
19
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.63
0.50
Conceded Std
1.72
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.1%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
19
0.00
Result entropy
0.93
0.50
Goal Difference Std
2.44
100.0
Stability score
7.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
1
Eligible Matches
17
0
Lead Matches
7
—
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.90
0
Trailing Matches
4
—
Non-loss rate
50.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.92
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
6
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
0
Long Rest History Matches
12
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
19
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-13.98
PPG1.21
GF1.16
GA-0.13
PPG1.00
PPG1.22
PPG1.60
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.37
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-17
Goals Mean1.16
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate15.8%
Scored 2+ rate42.1%
Scored 3+ rate18.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-1.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.37
Conceded 2+ rate7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.26
Venue Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.29
History Matches-17
Result entropy-0.93
Goal Difference Std-1.94
Stability score92.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.69
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-7
Trailing Matches-4
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.71
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.67
Long Rest History Matches-12
Current Team ELO-13.98
Current Opponent ELO13.98
Current ELO Difference-27.96
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-17
Residual Mean0.38
Overperformance-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.44

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

NK Ormoz

W
Videm1–3NK Ormoz31 Oct · away
Pick: Videm 43% · missed
W
Hajdina0–2NK Ormoz28 Oct · away
Pick: Hajdina 43% · missed
L
NK Ormoz1–3Rače24 Oct · home
Pick: Rače 50% · hit
W
NK Ormoz2–0Šampion Celje17 Oct · home
Pick: NK Ormoz 51% · hit
W
Čarda Martjanci1–3NK Ormoz30 Aug · away
Pick: Čarda Martjanci 38% · missed

Korotan Prevalje

W
Korotan Prevalje3–1Hajdina31 Oct · home
Pick: Korotan Prevalje 48% · hit
W
Korotan Prevalje3–0Šampion Celje28 Oct · home
Pick: Korotan Prevalje 60% · hit
L
Korotan Prevalje0–2Celje25 Oct · home
Pick: Celje 63% · hit
D
Rače0–0Korotan Prevalje26 Aug · away
Pick: Korotan Prevalje 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

NK Ormoz and Korotan Prevalje meet in 3. SNL - East on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: NK Ormoz win 38.8%, draw 26.7%, Korotan Prevalje win 34.4%. The pick is NK Ormoz win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.9%. Both teams to score: 64.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.