ScoreProb
3. SNL - East Slovenia East - 13 2026

Fužinar vs Ljutomer

Fužinar Home · Elo 1,534
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ljutomer Away · Elo 1,454
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fužinar win
Fužinar winPick
54.8%
Draw
18.5%
Ljutomer win
26.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.1%
No32.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.5%
Under 2.525.5%

How much we know

Fužinar history23 matches
Ljutomer history20 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Fužinar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fužinar are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,534 against 1,454. On rating alone Fužinar would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Fužinar score more

    2.48 goals a game over 23 matches for Fužinar, against 1.65 over 20 for Ljutomer.

  • Fužinar concede fewer

    Fužinar concede 1.43 a game, Ljutomer 2.20.

  • Fužinar games more often go over 2.5 goals

    78% of Fužinar matches, against 65% for Ljutomer. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fužinar
Ljutomer
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1533.7
ELO
1454.2
23
ELO · Matches
20
1533.7
Current Team ELO
1454.2
1454.2
Current Opponent ELO
1533.7
79.54
Current ELO Difference
-79.54
0.61
Expected score
0.39
23
History Matches
20
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.11
54.10
Overperformance
44.34
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
3.80
2.40
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
2.30
Goals for per game
2.50
1.60
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.01
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
23
Matches
20
1.74
PPG
0.90
52.2%
Win rate
20.0%
17.4%
Draw rate
30.0%
30.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
78.3%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
56.5%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
2.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
10
2.08
PPG
0.40
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
8.3%
Draw rate
40.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
12
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.48
Goals for per game
1.65
82.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
60.9%
BTTS rate
65.0%
3.25
Goals for per game
1.20
91.7%
Scoring rate
70.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
70.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
23
History Matches
20
2.48
Goals Mean
1.65
1.93
Goals Std
1.71
82.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
60.9%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
39.1%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
3.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.43
Goals against per game
2.20
73.9%
Conceding rate
90.0%
1.42
Goals against per game
2.40
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
23
History Matches
20
1.43
Conceded Mean
2.20
1.28
Conceded Std
1.40
43.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
65.0%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
40.0%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
2.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
23
History Matches
20
0.92
Result entropy
0.94
2.74
Goal Difference Std
1.99
8.46
Stability score
6.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
23
Eligible Matches
20
11
Lead Matches
2
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
8
0.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
23
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
1.26
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.22
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.20
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.19
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
12
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
9
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.25
Portability PPG Std
—
0.50
Portability PPG Range
—
66.67
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
23
Clean History Matches
20
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO79.54
PPG0.84
GF0.83
GA-0.77
PPG0.00
PPG1.68
PPG-1.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.83
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate7.6%
Scored 2+ rate20.9%
Scored 3+ rate19.1%
Venue Goals Mean2.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.34
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.77
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Conceded Mean-0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.76
Stability score2.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.60
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.55
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-0.73
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.92
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.54
Current Team ELO79.54
Current Opponent ELO-79.54
Current ELO Difference159.1
Expected score0.23
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.19
Overperformance9.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fužinar

L
Podvinci3–1Fužinar31 Oct · away
Pick: Fužinar 51% · missed
W
Fužinar3–0Čarda Martjanci28 Oct · home
Pick: Fužinar 51% · hit
W
Fužinar5–1Čarda Martjanci24 Oct · home
Pick: Fužinar 51% · hit
L
Rače1–0Fužinar17 Oct · away
Pick: Fužinar 40% · missed
W
Fužinar5–1Dobrovce29 Aug · home
Pick: Fužinar 83% · hit

Ljutomer

D
Ljutomer2–2Limbuš Pekre31 Oct · home
Pick: Ljutomer 58% · missed
L
Ljutomer0–3Videm28 Oct · home
Pick: Ljutomer 49% · missed
W
Ljutomer3–0Šampion Celje29 Aug · home
Pick: Ljutomer 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Fužinar and Ljutomer meet in 3. SNL - East on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Fužinar win 54.8%, draw 18.5%, Ljutomer win 26.7%. The pick is Fužinar win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.5%. Both teams to score: 67.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.