ScoreProb
3. SNL - East Slovenia East - 13 2026

Hajdina vs Šmartno

Hajdina Home · Elo 1,516
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Šmartno Away · Elo 1,485
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hajdina win
Hajdina winPick
54.9%
Draw
21.7%
Šmartno win
23.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%

How much we know

Hajdina history17 matches
Šmartno history18 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Hajdina are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hajdina are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,516 against 1,485. On rating alone Hajdina would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Šmartno score more

    1.18 goals a game over 17 matches for Hajdina, against 1.44 over 18 for Šmartno.

  • Hajdina concede fewer

    Hajdina concede 1.24 a game, Šmartno 1.61.

  • Šmartno games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Hajdina matches, against 50% for Šmartno. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hajdina
Šmartno
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.9
ELO
1485.2
17
ELO · Matches
18
1515.9
Current Team ELO
1485.2
1485.2
Current Opponent ELO
1515.9
30.69
Current ELO Difference
-30.69
0.54
Expected score
0.46
17
History Matches
18
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.06
52.37
Overperformance
47.12
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.41
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.74
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
17
Matches
18
1.59
PPG
1.11
47.1%
Win rate
27.8%
17.6%
Draw rate
27.8%
35.3%
Loss rate
44.4%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
11
1.78
PPG
1.36
55.6%
Win rate
36.4%
11.1%
Draw rate
27.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
36.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
9
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.44
76.5%
Scoring rate
77.8%
47.1%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.45
55.6%
Scoring rate
81.8%
33.3%
BTTS rate
54.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
17
History Matches
18
1.18
Goals Mean
1.44
0.92
Goals Std
1.26
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
29.4%
Scored 2+ rate
38.9%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.24
Goals against per game
1.61
64.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.73
66.7%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
17
History Matches
18
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.26
Conceded Std
1.64
35.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
17
History Matches
18
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
1.66
Goal Difference Std
2.06
6.39
Stability score
2.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
17
Eligible Matches
17
6
Lead Matches
6
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.72
1
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.92
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
7
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.56
9
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
2
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
17
Clean History Matches
18
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO30.69
PPG0.48
GF-0.27
GA-0.38
PPG1.50
PPG0.41
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate2.0%
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate26.3%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.41
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate2.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.54
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score3.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.53
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.30
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO30.69
Current Opponent ELO-30.69
Current ELO Difference61.38
Expected score0.09
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance5.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hajdina

L
Korotan Prevalje3–1Hajdina31 Oct · away
Pick: Korotan Prevalje 48% · hit
L
Hajdina0–2NK Ormoz28 Oct · home
Pick: Hajdina 43% · missed
L
Podvinci4–1Hajdina30 Aug · away
Pick: Hajdina 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Šmartno

L
Odranci6–0Šmartno28 Oct · away
Pick: Odranci 53% · hit
W
Dobrovce3–4Šmartno17 Oct · away
Pick: Šmartno 63% · hit
W
Šmartno3–0Videm29 Aug · home
Pick: Šmartno 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hajdina and Šmartno meet in 3. SNL - East on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hajdina win 54.9%, draw 21.7%, Šmartno win 23.4%. The pick is Hajdina win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.