ScoreProb
Oberliga - Westfalen Germany Westfalen - 13 2026

Erkenschwick vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen

Erkenschwick Home · Elo 1,436
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen Away · Elo 1,501
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Erkenschwick win
Erkenschwick winPick
57.0%
Draw
16.5%
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen win
26.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.5%
Under 2.531.5%

How much we know

Erkenschwick history57 matches
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Erkenschwick are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SpVgg Herne Horsthausen are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,501 against 1,436. On rating alone SpVgg Herne Horsthausen would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • SpVgg Herne Horsthausen score far more

    1.09 goals a game over 57 matches for Erkenschwick, against 2.00 over 2 for SpVgg Herne Horsthausen.

  • Defences are close

    Erkenschwick concede 2.00 a game, SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 2.00.

  • SpVgg Herne Horsthausen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Erkenschwick matches, against 100% for SpVgg Herne Horsthausen. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Erkenschwick
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1436.2
ELO
1501.1
57
ELO · Matches
2
1436.2
Current Team ELO
1501.1
1501.1
Current Opponent ELO
1436.2
-64.90
Current ELO Difference
64.90
0.41
Expected score
0.59
57
History Matches
2
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
45.73
Overperformance
50.23
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
1.40
PPG
1.50
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
10
Matches
2
0.90
PPG
1.50
1.10
Goals for per game
2.00
1.90
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
2
0.91
PPG
1.50
22.8%
Win rate
50.0%
22.8%
Draw rate
0.0%
54.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
77.2%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
59.6%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
1
1.11
PPG
3.00
29.6%
Win rate
100.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
48.1%
Loss rate
0.0%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
27
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
2.00
59.6%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.41
Goals for per game
3.00
70.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
57
History Matches
2
1.09
Goals Mean
2.00
1.11
Goals Std
1.00
59.6%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
35.1%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
10.5%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
3.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
84.2%
Conceding rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
81.5%
Conceding rate
0.0%
0.33
Goals against per game
2.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
57
History Matches
2
2.00
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.54
Conceded Std
2.00
50.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
36.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
2
0.92
Result entropy
0.63
1.94
Goal Difference Std
3.00
8.48
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
2
15
Lead Matches
0
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.67
Lead Points Retention
—
25
Trailing Matches
1
20.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
16.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
2.00
1.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
37
Normal Rest History Matches
1
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
19
Long Rest History Matches
0
0.84
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
2.33
PPG
1.50
66.7%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.80
Portability PPG Std
—
1.89
Portability PPG Range
—
38.58
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-64.90
PPG-0.59
GF-0.91
GA0.00
PPG0.83
PPG-1.89
PPG-0.10
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches55
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Failed-to-score rate40.4%
History Matches26
Clean-sheet rate-0.81
Failed-to-score rate29.6%
History Matches55
Goals Mean-0.91
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.40
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.39
Venue Goals Mean-1.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches55
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.46
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Conceded 2+ rate0.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches55
Result entropy0.28
Goal Difference Std-1.06
Stability score-28.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.46
Eligible Matches55
Lead Matches15
Trailing Matches24
Non-loss rate20.0%
Trailing Win Rate16.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches55
First Half Goals For Mean0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches36
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.97
Long Rest History Matches19
Current Team ELO-64.90
Current Opponent ELO64.90
Current ELO Difference-129.8
Expected score-0.18
History Matches55
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-4.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Erkenschwick

D
Vreden1–1Erkenschwick25 Oct · away
Pick: Vreden 40% · missed
L
Erkenschwick0–1ASC Dortmund18 Oct · home
Pick: Erkenschwick 50% · missed
W
Erkenschwick4–1Verl II4 Oct · home
Pick: Erkenschwick 44% · hit
D
Erkenschwick1–1Maaslingen30 Aug · home
Pick: Erkenschwick 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SpVgg Herne Horsthausen

L
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen2–9Gievenbeck25 Oct · home
Pick: Gievenbeck 42% · hit
L
Ennepetal3–1SpVgg Herne Horsthausen18 Oct · away
Pick: Ennepetal 58% · hit
L
Vreden2–0SpVgg Herne Horsthausen30 Aug · away
Pick: Vreden 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Erkenschwick and SpVgg Herne Horsthausen meet in Oberliga - Westfalen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Erkenschwick win 57.0%, draw 16.5%, SpVgg Herne Horsthausen win 26.5%. The pick is Erkenschwick win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.5%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.