ScoreProb
Oberliga - Westfalen Germany Westfalen - 13 2026

Gievenbeck vs Sprockhovel

Gievenbeck Home · Elo 1,469
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sprockhovel Away · Elo 1,453
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gievenbeck win
Gievenbeck winPick
41.9%
Draw
21.3%
Sprockhovel win
36.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.6%
No39.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.0%
Under 2.536.0%

How much we know

Gievenbeck history58 matches
Sprockhovel history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Gievenbeck are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,469 against 1,453. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sprockhovel score more

    1.47 goals a game over 58 matches for Gievenbeck, against 1.83 over 41 for Sprockhovel.

  • Gievenbeck concede fewer

    Gievenbeck concede 1.55 a game, Sprockhovel 1.88.

  • Sprockhovel games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Gievenbeck matches, against 76% for Sprockhovel. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gievenbeck
Sprockhovel
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1468.8
ELO
1452.9
58
ELO · Matches
41
1468.8
Current Team ELO
1452.9
1452.9
Current Opponent ELO
1468.8
15.88
Current ELO Difference
-15.88
0.52
Expected score
0.48
58
History Matches
41
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
48.04
Overperformance
46.05
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.99
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.07
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
41
1.21
PPG
1.20
31.0%
Win rate
34.1%
27.6%
Draw rate
17.1%
41.4%
Loss rate
48.8%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.4%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
75.6%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
53.7%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
21
1.41
PPG
0.86
41.4%
Win rate
23.8%
17.2%
Draw rate
14.3%
41.4%
Loss rate
61.9%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
52.4%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.52
29
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.83
75.9%
Scoring rate
80.5%
65.5%
BTTS rate
68.3%
1.55
Goals for per game
1.52
82.8%
Scoring rate
71.4%
65.5%
BTTS rate
61.9%
1.33
Goals for per game
3.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
58
History Matches
41
1.47
Goals Mean
1.83
1.23
Goals Std
1.59
75.9%
Scored 1+ rate
80.5%
41.4%
Scored 2+ rate
46.3%
20.7%
Scored 3+ rate
29.3%
1.55
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.88
87.9%
Conceding rate
85.4%
1.48
Goals against per game
2.33
82.8%
Conceding rate
90.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
58
History Matches
41
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.88
0.93
Conceded Std
1.55
48.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.7%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.4%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
2.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
12.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
41
0.99
Result entropy
0.93
1.58
Goal Difference Std
2.50
1.37
Stability score
7.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
40
22
Lead Matches
10
63.6%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.83
13
Trailing Matches
21
7.7%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.18
1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
27
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.86
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.37
0.54
Portability PPG Range
0.85
68.01
Portability Score
57.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO15.88
PPG0.01
GF-0.36
GA-0.33
PPG0.00
PPG0.56
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate4.6%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches17
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.79
History Matches17
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.62
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.45
History Matches17
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.92
Stability score-5.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.52
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.31
Portability Score10.28
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO15.88
Current Opponent ELO-15.88
Current ELO Difference31.77
Expected score0.05
History Matches17
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gievenbeck

W
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen2–9Gievenbeck25 Oct · away
Pick: Gievenbeck 42% · hit
D
Gievenbeck2–2Vreden17 Oct · home
Pick: Gievenbeck 43% · missed
W
Gievenbeck3–0Hiltrup4 Oct · home
Pick: Gievenbeck 71% · hit
W
Westfalia Kinderhaus0–4Gievenbeck30 Aug · away
Pick: Westfalia Kinderhaus 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sprockhovel

L
Sprockhovel0–2Ennepetal25 Oct · home
Pick: Sprockhovel 52% · missed
D
TuS Hordel1–1Sprockhovel18 Oct · away
Pick: Sprockhovel 56% · missed
W
Schermbeck1–3Sprockhovel4 Oct · away
Pick: Schermbeck 42% · missed
W
ASC Dortmund1–3Sprockhovel30 Aug · away
Pick: ASC Dortmund 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gievenbeck and Sprockhovel meet in Oberliga - Westfalen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Gievenbeck win 41.9%, draw 21.3%, Sprockhovel win 36.7%. The pick is Gievenbeck win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.0%. Both teams to score: 60.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.