ScoreProb
Oberliga - Westfalen Germany Westfalen - 13 2026

Preußen Münster II vs ASC Dortmund

Preußen Münster II Home · Elo 1,545
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
ASC Dortmund Away · Elo 1,613
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Preußen Münster II win
Preußen Münster II winPick
51.4%
Draw
20.0%
ASC Dortmund win
28.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.5%
No34.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.5%
Under 2.529.5%

How much we know

Preußen Münster II history60 matches
ASC Dortmund history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Preußen Münster II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • ASC Dortmund are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,613 against 1,545. On rating alone ASC Dortmund would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • ASC Dortmund score more

    2.00 goals a game over 60 matches for Preußen Münster II, against 2.45 over 56 for ASC Dortmund.

  • ASC Dortmund concede fewer

    Preußen Münster II concede 1.62 a game, ASC Dortmund 1.36.

  • Preußen Münster II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    78% of Preußen Münster II matches, against 63% for ASC Dortmund. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Preußen Münster II
ASC Dortmund
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1545.1
ELO
1612.8
60
ELO · Matches
56
1545.1
Current Team ELO
1612.8
1612.8
Current Opponent ELO
1545.1
-67.69
Current ELO Difference
67.69
0.40
Expected score
0.60
60
History Matches
56
0.03
Residual Mean
0.09
52.32
Overperformance
56.71
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
56
1.58
PPG
1.98
46.7%
Win rate
58.9%
18.3%
Draw rate
21.4%
35.0%
Loss rate
19.6%
88.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
78.3%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
55.4%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
30
1.54
PPG
1.70
42.9%
Win rate
46.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
30.0%
32.1%
Loss rate
23.3%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
63.3%
53.6%
Over 3.5 rate
56.7%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
28
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
2.45
80.0%
Scoring rate
91.1%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.1%
2.07
Goals for per game
2.40
78.6%
Scoring rate
90.0%
64.3%
BTTS rate
73.3%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
56
2.00
Goals Mean
2.45
1.52
Goals Std
1.94
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
91.1%
58.3%
Scored 2+ rate
60.7%
36.7%
Scored 3+ rate
39.3%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
2.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.62
Goals against per game
1.36
81.7%
Conceding rate
73.2%
1.64
Goals against per game
1.47
78.6%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
3.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
56
1.62
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.18
Conceded Std
1.23
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.9%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.9%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
18.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
56
0.94
Result entropy
0.88
1.98
Goal Difference Std
2.35
5.87
Stability score
12.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
56
26
Lead Matches
29
88.5%
Lead Win Rate
86.2%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.91
18
Trailing Matches
16
16.7%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.97
First Half Goals For Mean
1.11
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.34
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
33
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.69
Portability PPG Range
1.06
62.14
Portability Score
50.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-67.69
PPG-0.40
GF-0.45
GA0.26
PPG0.33
PPG-0.16
PPG0.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate11.4%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.45
Goals Std-0.43
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.58
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches4
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-6.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate2.3%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.36
Portability Score11.41
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-67.69
Current Opponent ELO67.69
Current ELO Difference-135.4
Expected score-0.19
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Preußen Münster II

W
Hiltrup1–2Preußen Münster II25 Oct · away
Pick: Preußen Münster II 67% · hit
W
Preußen Münster II1–0Verl II18 Oct · home
Pick: Preußen Münster II 51% · hit
D
Preußen Münster II2–2Ennepetal30 Aug · home
Pick: Preußen Münster II 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

ASC Dortmund

W
Erkenschwick0–1ASC Dortmund18 Oct · away
Pick: Erkenschwick 50% · missed
W
ASC Dortmund1–0Schermbeck14 Oct · home
Pick: ASC Dortmund 63% · hit
W
Ennepetal1–5ASC Dortmund4 Oct · away
Pick: Ennepetal 46% · missed
L
ASC Dortmund1–3Sprockhovel30 Aug · home
Pick: ASC Dortmund 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Preußen Münster II and ASC Dortmund meet in Oberliga - Westfalen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Preußen Münster II win 51.4%, draw 20.0%, ASC Dortmund win 28.6%. The pick is Preußen Münster II win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.5%. Both teams to score: 65.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.