ScoreProb
La Liga Spain Round 12 2026

Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna

Espanyol Home · Elo 1,517
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportivo La Coruna Away · Elo 1,618
RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Espanyol win
Espanyol winPick
42.5%
Draw
29.3%
Deportivo La Coruna win
28.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.9%
No47.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.4%
Under 2.547.6%

How much we know

Espanyol history69 matches
Deportivo La Coruna history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Espanyol are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Deportivo La Coruna are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,618 against 1,517. On rating alone Deportivo La Coruna would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Deportivo La Coruna score more

    1.28 goals a game over 69 matches for Espanyol, against 1.53 over 79 for Deportivo La Coruna.

  • Deportivo La Coruna concede fewer

    Espanyol concede 1.30 a game, Deportivo La Coruna 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Espanyol matches, against 47% for Deportivo La Coruna. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Espanyol
Deportivo La Coruna
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.1
ELO
1617.8
69
ELO · Matches
79
1517.1
Current Team ELO
1617.8
1617.8
Current Opponent ELO
1517.1
-100.7
Current ELO Difference
100.7
0.36
Expected score
0.64
69
History Matches
79
0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
50.47
Overperformance
55.16
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
79
1.32
PPG
1.75
34.8%
Win rate
48.1%
27.5%
Draw rate
30.4%
37.7%
Loss rate
21.5%
76.8%
Over 1.5 rate
74.7%
49.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.8%
23.2%
Over 3.5 rate
26.6%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
43
1.50
PPG
1.79
40.6%
Win rate
48.8%
28.1%
Draw rate
32.6%
31.3%
Loss rate
18.6%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.1%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
46.5%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
27.9%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
32
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.53
79.7%
Scoring rate
79.7%
56.5%
BTTS rate
53.2%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.65
81.3%
Scoring rate
83.7%
53.1%
BTTS rate
55.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
79
1.28
Goals Mean
1.53
0.95
Goals Std
1.25
79.7%
Scored 1+ rate
79.7%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
45.6%
8.7%
Scored 3+ rate
15.2%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.00
71.0%
Conceding rate
67.1%
1.09
Goals against per game
0.98
68.8%
Conceding rate
67.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
79
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.08
Conceded Std
0.91
44.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.3%
10.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
0.98
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
79
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.65
0.76
Stability score
4.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
79
15
Lead Matches
24
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
79.2%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.85
16
Trailing Matches
19
31.3%
Non-loss rate
47.4%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.82
Rest days
74.82
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.29
36
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
26
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.01
Portability PPG Range
1.28
55.01
Portability Score
52.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-100.7
PPG-0.43
GF-0.26
GA0.30
PPG0.50
PPG-0.29
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches-10
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-4.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.48
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.27
Portability Score2.01
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Current Team ELO-100.7
Current Opponent ELO100.7
Current ELO Difference-201.5
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Espanyol

W
Villarreal0–1Espanyol30 Oct · away
Pick: Villarreal 49% · missed
L
Racing Santander2–1Espanyol24 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Santander 43% · hit
L
Espanyol0–1Atletico Madrid17 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Madrid 43% · hit
L
Real Sociedad2–1Espanyol29 Aug · away
Pick: Espanyol 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Deportivo La Coruna

W
Deportivo La Coruna2–1Osasuna2 Nov · home
Pick: Deportivo La Coruna 42% · hit
W
Auriense0–3Deportivo La Coruna29 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo La Coruna 38% · hit
L
Atletico Madrid1–0Deportivo La Coruna24 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Madrid 57% · hit
D
Deportivo La Coruna1–1Levante16 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo La Coruna 60% · missed
W
Deportivo La Coruna3–1Valencia30 Aug · home
Pick: Deportivo La Coruna 54% · hit

About this match

Espanyol and Deportivo La Coruna meet in La Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:15 UTC. The match is played at RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Espanyol win 42.5%, draw 29.3%, Deportivo La Coruna win 28.2%. The pick is Espanyol win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.4%. Both teams to score: 52.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.