ScoreProb
La Liga Spain Round 12 2026

Valencia vs Real Madrid

Valencia Home · Elo 1,535
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Madrid Away · Elo 1,744
Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Madrid win
Valencia win
21.7%
Draw
19.3%
Real Madrid winPick
59.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%

How much we know

Valencia history74 matches
Real Madrid history97 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Real Madrid are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Madrid are rated 209 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,744 against 1,535. On rating alone Real Madrid would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.

  • Real Madrid score far more

    1.28 goals a game over 74 matches for Valencia, against 2.03 over 97 for Real Madrid.

  • Real Madrid concede fewer

    Valencia concede 1.38 a game, Real Madrid 1.16.

  • Real Madrid games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Valencia matches, against 65% for Real Madrid. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Valencia
Real Madrid
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1535.1
ELO
1743.8
74
ELO · Matches
97
1535.1
Current Team ELO
1743.8
1743.8
Current Opponent ELO
1535.1
-208.7
Current ELO Difference
208.7
0.23
Expected score
0.77
74
History Matches
97
0.03
Residual Mean
0.12
52.13
Overperformance
59.63
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.60
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.50
1.60
Goals for per game
2.10
1.40
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
97
1.36
PPG
2.11
36.5%
Win rate
67.0%
27.0%
Draw rate
10.3%
36.5%
Loss rate
22.7%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.5%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
64.9%
20.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.0%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
52
1.50
PPG
1.90
42.1%
Win rate
59.6%
23.7%
Draw rate
11.5%
34.2%
Loss rate
28.8%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.5%
13.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
38
History Matches
52
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
2.03
77.0%
Scoring rate
90.7%
54.1%
BTTS rate
59.8%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.85
76.3%
Scoring rate
86.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
51.9%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
74
History Matches
97
1.28
Goals Mean
2.03
1.07
Goals Std
1.22
77.0%
Scored 1+ rate
90.7%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
66.0%
14.9%
Scored 3+ rate
30.9%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.16
73.0%
Conceding rate
68.0%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.27
68.4%
Conceding rate
63.5%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
74
History Matches
97
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.38
Conceded Std
1.14
36.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.9%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
23.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
23.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.5%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
97
0.99
Result entropy
0.76
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.67
0.84
Stability score
23.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
97
18
Lead Matches
47
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
91.5%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.94
23
Trailing Matches
18
39.1%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
97
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.04
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
21
1.90
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.86
35
Normal Rest History Matches
60
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.13
28
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
0.50
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
0.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
11
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.89
58.01
Portability Score
63.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
97
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-208.7
PPG-0.75
GF-0.75
GA0.21
PPG-2.50
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate13.7%
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate10.2%
History Matches-23
Goals Mean-0.75
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.34
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches-23
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches-23
Result entropy0.23
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score-22.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-29
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate0.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean-0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.11
Portability Score-5.52
Rest days-2.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-11
Short Rest Points Per Match0.04
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.23
Current Team ELO-208.7
Current Opponent ELO208.7
Current ELO Difference-417.5
Expected score-0.54
History Matches-23
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-7.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Valencia

W
Elche0–1Valencia1 Nov · away
Pick: Valencia 42% · hit
L
Valencia1–2Villarreal24 Oct · home
Pick: Villarreal 46% · hit
D
Valencia0–0Athletic Club17 Oct · home
Pick: Valencia 47% · missed
L
Deportivo La Coruna3–1Valencia30 Aug · away
Pick: Deportivo La Coruna 54% · hit
L
Valencia0–1Real Betis25 Aug · home
Pick: Real Betis 47% · hit

Real Madrid

W
Racing Santander0–3Real Madrid1 Nov · away
Pick: Real Madrid 52% · hit
W
Barcelona1–2Real Madrid25 Oct · away
Pick: Barcelona 48% · missed
W
Real Madrid4–1RB Leipzig21 Oct · home
Pick: Real Madrid 65% · hit
W
Real Madrid4–1Sevilla18 Oct · home
Pick: Real Madrid 48% · hit
W
AS Roma3–4Real Madrid14 Oct · away
Pick: Real Madrid 44% · hit

About this match

Valencia and Real Madrid meet in La Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Valencia win 21.7%, draw 19.3%, Real Madrid win 59.0%. The pick is Real Madrid win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.7%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.