ScoreProb
La Liga Spain Round 12 2026

Osasuna vs Athletic Club

Osasuna Home · Elo 1,522
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Athletic Club Away · Elo 1,522
Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Osasuna win
Osasuna winPick
49.8%
Draw
23.4%
Athletic Club win
26.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%

How much we know

Osasuna history71 matches
Athletic Club history90 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Osasuna are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,522 against 1,522. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.31 goals a game over 71 matches for Osasuna, against 1.31 over 90 for Athletic Club.

  • Defences are close

    Osasuna concede 1.28 a game, Athletic Club 1.37.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Osasuna matches, against 50% for Athletic Club. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Osasuna
Athletic Club
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.9
ELO
1522.1
71
ELO · Matches
90
1521.9
Current Team ELO
1522.1
1522.1
Current Opponent ELO
1521.9
-0.26
Current ELO Difference
0.26
0.50
Expected score
0.50
71
History Matches
90
0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
50.74
Overperformance
50.09
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.10
Goals for per game
2.70
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.93
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.77
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
90
1.30
PPG
1.28
33.8%
Win rate
35.6%
28.2%
Draw rate
21.1%
38.0%
Loss rate
43.3%
76.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.9%
47.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.5%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
51
1.70
PPG
1.04
48.5%
Win rate
27.5%
24.2%
Draw rate
21.6%
27.3%
Loss rate
51.0%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.5%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
51.0%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
33
History Matches
51
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.31
71.8%
Scoring rate
63.3%
56.3%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.25
87.9%
Scoring rate
58.8%
57.6%
BTTS rate
41.2%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
90
1.31
Goals Mean
1.31
1.13
Goals Std
1.63
71.8%
Scored 1+ rate
63.3%
42.3%
Scored 2+ rate
35.6%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.37
78.9%
Conceding rate
71.1%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.55
66.7%
Conceding rate
70.6%
0.00
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
90
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.37
0.95
Conceded Std
1.22
36.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.9%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
90
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.42
Goal Difference Std
2.14
0.68
Stability score
3.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
90
24
Lead Matches
20
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.85
17
Trailing Matches
25
23.5%
Non-loss rate
44.0%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
16.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
90
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.00
Rest days
77.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
19
2.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.68
41
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
24
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
7
Competition Season Count
10
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.89
Portability PPG Range
0.78
61.46
Portability Score
61.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
90
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-0.26
PPG0.02
GF0.00
GA-0.08
PPG1.00
PPG0.66
PPG0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches-19
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.50
Scored 1+ rate8.5%
Scored 2+ rate6.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-2.10
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches-19
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.72
Stability score-2.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.59
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score0.21
Rest days-2.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-14
Short Rest Points Per Match0.92
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-0.26
Current Opponent ELO0.26
Current ELO Difference-0.53
Expected score0.00
History Matches-19
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Osasuna

L
Deportivo La Coruna2–1Osasuna2 Nov · away
Pick: Deportivo La Coruna 42% · hit
W
Atletico Calatayud0–6Osasuna29 Oct · away
Pick: Osasuna 58% · hit
L
Sevilla2–0Osasuna26 Oct · away
Pick: Sevilla 45% · hit
W
Osasuna2–0Racing Santander18 Oct · home
Pick: Osasuna 45% · hit
W
Osasuna1–0Getafe31 Aug · home
Pick: Osasuna 53% · hit

Athletic Club

W
Athletic Club2–1Real Sociedad1 Nov · home
Pick: Athletic Club 42% · hit
W
Prat1–6Athletic Club29 Oct · away
Pick: Athletic Club 55% · hit
W
Athletic Club4–0Getafe25 Oct · home
Pick: Athletic Club 48% · hit
L
Levante3–1Athletic Club21 Oct · away
Pick: Levante 44% · hit
D
Valencia0–0Athletic Club17 Oct · away
Pick: Valencia 47% · missed

About this match

Osasuna and Athletic Club meet in La Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Osasuna win 49.8%, draw 23.4%, Athletic Club win 26.8%. The pick is Osasuna win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.8%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.