ScoreProb
Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Excelsior '31 vs ACV

Excelsior '31 Home · Elo 1,473
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
ACV Away · Elo 1,472
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Excelsior '31 win
Excelsior '31 winPick
48.8%
Draw
23.5%
ACV win
27.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.6%
No41.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.9%
Under 2.537.1%

How much we know

Excelsior '31 history52 matches
ACV history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Excelsior '31 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,473 against 1,472. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.54 goals a game over 52 matches for Excelsior '31, against 1.40 over 53 for ACV.

  • Defences are close

    Excelsior '31 concede 1.83 a game, ACV 1.94.

  • Excelsior '31 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Excelsior '31 matches, against 60% for ACV. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Excelsior '31
ACV
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1473.1
ELO
1472.0
52
ELO · Matches
53
1473.1
Current Team ELO
1472.0
1472.0
Current Opponent ELO
1473.1
1.05
Current ELO Difference
-1.05
0.50
Expected score
0.50
52
History Matches
53
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.24
Overperformance
47.97
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.40
2.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
53
1.17
PPG
1.02
32.7%
Win rate
26.4%
19.2%
Draw rate
22.6%
48.1%
Loss rate
50.9%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.0%
69.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.4%
44.2%
Over 3.5 rate
39.6%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
28
1.19
PPG
0.82
34.6%
Win rate
17.9%
15.4%
Draw rate
28.6%
50.0%
Loss rate
53.6%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
89.3%
65.4%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
26
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.54
Goals for per game
1.40
76.9%
Scoring rate
75.5%
61.5%
BTTS rate
60.4%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.21
73.1%
Scoring rate
71.4%
53.8%
BTTS rate
60.7%
4.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
52
History Matches
53
1.54
Goals Mean
1.40
1.20
Goals Std
1.22
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
48.1%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
21.2%
Scored 3+ rate
17.0%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.83
Goals against per game
1.94
82.7%
Conceding rate
83.0%
1.69
Goals against per game
2.07
80.8%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
52
History Matches
53
1.83
Conceded Mean
1.94
1.31
Conceded Std
1.55
57.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.6%
26.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.3%
1.69
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
17.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
53
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
1.88
Goal Difference Std
2.04
5.82
Stability score
6.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
52
13
Lead Matches
14
46.2%
Lead Win Rate
35.7%
0.59
Lead Points Retention
0.48
11
Trailing Matches
17
9.1%
Non-loss rate
5.9%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.27
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
76.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
6
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.54
0.21
Portability PPG Range
1.29
82.50
Portability Score
48.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO1.05
PPG0.15
GF0.14
GA-0.12
PPG0.00
PPG0.37
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate1.5%
Scored 2+ rate10.3%
Scored 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.39
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate0.3%
Conceded 2+ rate1.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.73
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-0.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate10.4%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate3.2%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.43
Portability PPG Range-1.07
Portability Score34.28
Rest days0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO1.05
Current Opponent ELO-1.05
Current ELO Difference2.10
Expected score0.00
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Excelsior '31

L
Harkemase Boys4–0Excelsior '3124 Oct · away
Pick: Excelsior '31 42% · missed
W
Excelsior '315–0SC Genemuiden17 Oct · home
Pick: Excelsior '31 43% · hit
W
Harkemase Boys0–1Excelsior '311 Sep · away
Pick: Harkemase Boys 41% · missed
W
Excelsior '314–0SVZW29 Aug · home
Pick: Excelsior '31 72% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

ACV

D
ACV1–1Dovo24 Oct · home
Pick: ACV 50% · missed
W
Hoogeveen1–4ACV17 Oct · away
Pick: ACV 46% · hit
D
ACV1–1DVS 33 Ermelo29 Aug · home
Pick: ACV 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Excelsior '31 and ACV meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Excelsior '31 win 48.8%, draw 23.5%, ACV win 27.7%. The pick is Excelsior '31 win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.9%. Both teams to score: 58.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.