ScoreProb
Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Poortugaal vs Groene Ster

Poortugaal Home · Elo 1,503
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Groene Ster Away · Elo 1,430
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Poortugaal win
Poortugaal winPick
55.6%
Draw
18.5%
Groene Ster win
25.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.9%
Under 2.534.1%

How much we know

Poortugaal history2 matches
Groene Ster history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Poortugaal are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Poortugaal are rated 72 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,503 against 1,430. On rating alone Poortugaal would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Poortugaal score more

    1.50 goals a game over 2 matches for Poortugaal, against 1.30 over 40 for Groene Ster.

  • Poortugaal concede fewer

    Poortugaal concede 1.00 a game, Groene Ster 1.78.

  • Groene Ster games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Poortugaal matches, against 60% for Groene Ster. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Poortugaal
Groene Ster
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1502.7
ELO
1430.2
2
ELO · Matches
40
1502.7
Current Team ELO
1430.2
1430.2
Current Opponent ELO
1502.7
72.45
Current ELO Difference
-72.45
0.60
Expected score
0.40
2
History Matches
40
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.08
50.62
Overperformance
44.42
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
1.50
PPG
0.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.80
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.80
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
40
1.50
PPG
1.18
50.0%
Win rate
32.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
47.5%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
47.5%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
19
0.00
PPG
0.84
0.0%
Win rate
21.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
21.1%
100.0%
Loss rate
57.9%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.2%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
52.6%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
1
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
50.0%
Scoring rate
70.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.05
0.0%
Scoring rate
63.2%
0.0%
BTTS rate
52.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
40
1.50
Goals Mean
1.30
1.50
Goals Std
1.19
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
35.0%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.78
100.0%
Conceding rate
82.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.11
100.0%
Conceding rate
84.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
40
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.78
0.00
Conceded Std
1.27
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.5%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.5%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
40
0.63
Result entropy
0.95
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.73
36.91
Stability score
5.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
1
Eligible Matches
33
0
Lead Matches
9
—
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.81
1
Trailing Matches
12
0.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
25
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
1
Long Rest History Matches
13
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
1
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.59
—
Portability PPG Range
1.19
—
Portability Score
45.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO72.45
PPG0.33
GF0.20
GA-0.78
PPG1.50
PPG-0.84
PPG0.90
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-38
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate20.0%
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate63.2%
History Matches-38
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate15.0%
Scored 3+ rate30.0%
Venue Goals Mean-1.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-38
Conceded Mean-0.78
Conceded Std-1.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate-0.53
Conceded 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Conceded Mean-1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.08
History Matches-38
Result entropy-0.32
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score31.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.51
Eligible Matches-32
Lead Matches-9
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-32
First Half Goals For Mean-0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.94
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match1.92
Current Team ELO72.45
Current Opponent ELO-72.45
Current ELO Difference144.9
Expected score0.21
History Matches-38
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance6.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Poortugaal

W
UDI '192–3Poortugaal24 Oct · away
Pick: UDI '19 54% · missed
W
Blauw Geel1–3Poortugaal17 Oct · away
Pick: Blauw Geel 45% · missed
L
Achilles Veen4–2Poortugaal1 Sep · away
Pick: Poortugaal 48% · missed
W
Poortugaal3–1Zwaluwen29 Aug · home
Pick: Poortugaal 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Groene Ster

L
Groene Ster1–3UNA25 Oct · home
Pick: UNA 51% · hit
L
Dongen3–0Groene Ster18 Oct · away
Pick: Dongen 67% · hit
D
Groene Ster3–3Vvsb30 Aug · home
Pick: Vvsb 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Poortugaal and Groene Ster meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Poortugaal win 55.6%, draw 18.5%, Groene Ster win 25.9%. The pick is Poortugaal win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.9%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.