ScoreProb
Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Zwaluwen vs TOGB

Zwaluwen Home · Elo 1,513
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
TOGB Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zwaluwen win
Zwaluwen winPick
41.0%
Draw
24.1%
TOGB win
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.5%
No36.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.0%
Under 2.536.0%

How much we know

Zwaluwen history37 matches
TOGB history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Zwaluwen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,513 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.70 goals a game over 37 matches for Zwaluwen, against 1.76 over 50 for TOGB.

  • Zwaluwen concede fewer

    Zwaluwen concede 1.38 a game, TOGB 1.90.

  • TOGB games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Zwaluwen matches, against 74% for TOGB. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zwaluwen
TOGB
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.6
ELO
1500.1
37
ELO · Matches
50
1512.6
Current Team ELO
1500.1
1500.1
Current Opponent ELO
1512.6
12.52
Current ELO Difference
-12.52
0.52
Expected score
0.48
37
History Matches
50
0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
50.90
Overperformance
50.06
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.90
Goals for per game
1.50
1.30
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.23
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
50
1.51
PPG
1.34
43.2%
Win rate
38.0%
21.6%
Draw rate
20.0%
35.1%
Loss rate
42.0%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.0%
62.2%
Over 2.5 rate
74.0%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
48.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
25
1.67
PPG
1.24
50.0%
Win rate
36.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
48.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
18
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.70
Goals for per game
1.76
75.7%
Scoring rate
86.0%
62.2%
BTTS rate
72.0%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.32
77.8%
Scoring rate
80.0%
61.1%
BTTS rate
64.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
50
1.70
Goals Mean
1.76
1.45
Goals Std
1.26
75.7%
Scored 1+ rate
86.0%
48.6%
Scored 2+ rate
52.0%
29.7%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.90
81.1%
Conceding rate
84.0%
1.17
Goals against per game
2.00
77.8%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
50
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.90
1.05
Conceded Std
1.45
40.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
8.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.0%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
50
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.87
3.41
Stability score
4.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
41
8
Lead Matches
15
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.76
5
Trailing Matches
14
20.0%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.20
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
20
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
16
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.31
—
Portability PPG Range
0.63
—
Portability Score
61.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO12.52
PPG0.17
GF-0.06
GA-0.52
PPG0.00
PPG0.43
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate10.3%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches-13
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std-0.40
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-0.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate20.8%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate12.9%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO12.52
Current Opponent ELO-12.52
Current ELO Difference25.04
Expected score0.04
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zwaluwen

W
Vvsb2–4Zwaluwen24 Oct · away
Pick: Vvsb 63% · missed
L
Zwaluwen0–2Excelsior Maassluis17 Oct · home
Pick: Excelsior Maassluis 56% · hit
L
Poortugaal3–1Zwaluwen29 Aug · away
Pick: Poortugaal 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

TOGB

W
TOGB3–1Blauw Geel24 Oct · home
Pick: TOGB 41% · hit
D
TOGB3–3Vvsb17 Oct · home
Pick: Vvsb 41% · missed
L
UDI '192–1TOGB30 Aug · away
Pick: UDI '19 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Zwaluwen and TOGB meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Zwaluwen win 41.0%, draw 24.1%, TOGB win 34.9%. The pick is Zwaluwen win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.0%. Both teams to score: 63.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.