ScoreProb
Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Staphorst vs Eemdijk

Staphorst Home · Elo 1,475
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eemdijk Away · Elo 1,487
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Eemdijk win
Staphorst win
32.1%
Draw
19.0%
Eemdijk winPick
48.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.0%
No33.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.5%
Under 2.524.5%

How much we know

Staphorst history37 matches
Eemdijk history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Eemdijk are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,475 against 1,487. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.81 goals a game over 37 matches for Staphorst, against 1.86 over 56 for Eemdijk.

  • Staphorst concede fewer

    Staphorst concede 1.76 a game, Eemdijk 1.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    76% of Staphorst matches, against 77% for Eemdijk. The model puts this match at 76% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Staphorst
Eemdijk
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1474.9
ELO
1486.9
37
ELO · Matches
56
1474.9
Current Team ELO
1486.9
1486.9
Current Opponent ELO
1474.9
-12.00
Current ELO Difference
12.00
0.48
Expected score
0.52
37
History Matches
56
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.86
Overperformance
49.45
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
2.10
Goals against per game
1.90
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
56
1.43
PPG
1.30
43.2%
Win rate
37.5%
13.5%
Draw rate
17.9%
43.2%
Loss rate
44.6%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
75.7%
Over 2.5 rate
76.8%
62.2%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
27
1.53
PPG
1.37
47.4%
Win rate
40.7%
10.5%
Draw rate
14.8%
42.1%
Loss rate
44.4%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
84.2%
Over 2.5 rate
70.4%
73.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
19
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.81
Goals for per game
1.86
78.4%
Scoring rate
85.7%
67.6%
BTTS rate
73.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.56
78.9%
Scoring rate
77.8%
68.4%
BTTS rate
55.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
37
History Matches
56
1.81
Goals Mean
1.86
1.37
Goals Std
1.30
78.4%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
56.8%
Scored 2+ rate
62.5%
29.7%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.76
Goals against per game
1.98
89.2%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.79
Goals against per game
1.74
89.5%
Conceding rate
77.8%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
56
1.76
Conceded Mean
1.98
1.10
Conceded Std
1.48
54.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.6%
24.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.9%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
56
0.91
Result entropy
0.94
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.08
9.38
Stability score
5.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
26
Eligible Matches
42
7
Lead Matches
9
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.78
10
Trailing Matches
19
40.0%
Non-loss rate
5.3%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.12
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
20
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
16
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
4
Competition Season Count
6
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.50
—
Portability PPG Range
1.21
—
Portability Score
50.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-12.00
PPG0.13
GF-0.05
GA-0.23
PPG-1.00
PPG0.16
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate7.3%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-19
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean-0.23
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate0.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches-19
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score3.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate34.7%
Trailing Win Rate14.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-12.00
Current Opponent ELO12.00
Current ELO Difference-24.00
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-19
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Staphorst

L
Hercules4–1Staphorst24 Oct · away
Pick: Hercules 42% · hit
W
Staphorst2–1DVS 33 Ermelo17 Oct · home
Pick: DVS 33 Ermelo 38% · missed
D
ADO '200–0Staphorst29 Aug · away
Pick: ADO '20 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Eemdijk

L
Eemdijk0–1Hollandia31 Oct · home
Pick: Eemdijk 62% · missed
L
Quick Boys4–0Eemdijk28 Oct · away
Pick: Quick Boys 62% · hit
W
Eemdijk3–1Sportlust '4623 Oct · home
Pick: Eemdijk 40% · hit
W
Eemdijk2–0Hercules17 Oct · home
Pick: Eemdijk 52% · hit
W
Elinkwijk0–3Eemdijk1 Sep · away
Pick: Eemdijk 38% · hit

About this match

Staphorst and Eemdijk meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Staphorst win 32.1%, draw 19.0%, Eemdijk win 48.9%. The pick is Eemdijk win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.5%. Both teams to score: 67.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.