ScoreProb
Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Rijnvogels vs Roosendaal

Rijnvogels Home · Elo 1,544
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Roosendaal Away · Elo 1,530
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rijnvogels win
Rijnvogels winPick
50.4%
Draw
22.1%
Roosendaal win
27.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.9%
No37.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.3%
Under 2.532.7%

How much we know

Rijnvogels history56 matches
Roosendaal history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Rijnvogels are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,544 against 1,530. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Roosendaal score more

    1.77 goals a game over 56 matches for Rijnvogels, against 1.97 over 37 for Roosendaal.

  • Defences are close

    Rijnvogels concede 1.57 a game, Roosendaal 1.68.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Rijnvogels matches, against 73% for Roosendaal. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rijnvogels
Roosendaal
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.5
ELO
1530.2
56
ELO · Matches
37
1544.5
Current Team ELO
1530.2
1530.2
Current Opponent ELO
1544.5
14.25
Current ELO Difference
-14.25
0.52
Expected score
0.48
56
History Matches
37
0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
53.09
Overperformance
52.48
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
37
1.59
PPG
1.51
46.4%
Win rate
43.2%
19.6%
Draw rate
21.6%
33.9%
Loss rate
35.1%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.2%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
73.0%
46.4%
Over 3.5 rate
48.6%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
19
1.69
PPG
1.11
51.7%
Win rate
31.6%
13.8%
Draw rate
15.8%
34.5%
Loss rate
52.6%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
84.2%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
63.2%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
29
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
1.97
80.4%
Scoring rate
86.5%
60.7%
BTTS rate
78.4%
1.93
Goals for per game
1.84
75.9%
Scoring rate
89.5%
48.3%
BTTS rate
89.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
37
1.77
Goals Mean
1.97
1.41
Goals Std
1.40
80.4%
Scored 1+ rate
86.5%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
59.5%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
35.1%
1.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.57
Goals against per game
1.68
75.0%
Conceding rate
89.2%
1.38
Goals against per game
2.21
65.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
37
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.68
1.39
Conceded Std
1.21
46.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.0%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
2.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.5%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.5%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
37
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
2.10
Goal Difference Std
1.83
5.09
Stability score
3.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
31
15
Lead Matches
10
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.87
13
Trailing Matches
8
38.5%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
31
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.06
Rest days
76.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
27
Normal Rest History Matches
18
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
26
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.74
Portability PPG Std
—
1.85
Portability PPG Range
—
40.37
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO14.25
PPG0.08
GF-0.21
GA-0.10
PPG-0.50
PPG0.58
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate14.2%
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate34.5%
Failed-to-score rate13.6%
History Matches19
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches19
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate14.2%
Conceded 2+ rate5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches19
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score1.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.46
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate1.0%
Trailing Win Rate2.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days-0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.83
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Current Team ELO14.25
Current Opponent ELO-14.25
Current ELO Difference28.50
Expected score0.04
History Matches19
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rijnvogels

W
Achilles Veen1–4Rijnvogels24 Oct · away
Pick: Rijnvogels 65% · hit
L
Rijnvogels0–3Noordwijk17 Oct · home
Pick: Noordwijk 42% · hit
W
GOES1–4Rijnvogels30 Aug · away
Pick: GOES 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Roosendaal

D
EVV3–3Roosendaal18 Oct · away
Pick: Roosendaal 54% · missed
L
Noordwijk1–0Roosendaal29 Aug · away
Pick: Noordwijk 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rijnvogels and Roosendaal meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rijnvogels win 50.4%, draw 22.1%, Roosendaal win 27.5%. The pick is Rijnvogels win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.3%. Both teams to score: 62.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.