ScoreProb
Botola Pro Morocco Round 1 2026

FAR Rabat vs Raja Casablanca

FAR Rabat Home · Elo 1,629
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Raja Casablanca Away · Elo 1,601
Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah, Rabat Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FAR Rabat win
FAR Rabat winPick
48.4%
Draw
33.4%
Raja Casablanca win
18.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.3%
No53.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.0%
Under 2.561.0%

How much we know

FAR Rabat history62 matches
Raja Casablanca history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FAR Rabat are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FAR Rabat are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,629 against 1,601. On rating alone FAR Rabat would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.39 goals a game over 62 matches for FAR Rabat, against 1.40 over 43 for Raja Casablanca.

  • Raja Casablanca concede fewer

    FAR Rabat concede 0.76 a game, Raja Casablanca 0.65.

  • FAR Rabat games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of FAR Rabat matches, against 26% for Raja Casablanca. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FAR Rabat
Raja Casablanca
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1629.4
ELO
1601.4
62
ELO · Matches
43
1629.4
Current Team ELO
1601.4
1601.4
Current Opponent ELO
1629.4
28.01
Current ELO Difference
-28.01
0.54
Expected score
0.46
62
History Matches
43
0.11
Residual Mean
0.11
58.01
Overperformance
57.77
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.10
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
43
1.81
PPG
1.86
46.8%
Win rate
51.2%
40.3%
Draw rate
32.6%
12.9%
Loss rate
16.3%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
67.4%
40.3%
Over 2.5 rate
25.6%
14.5%
Over 3.5 rate
9.3%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
22
2.31
PPG
1.59
65.6%
Win rate
40.9%
34.4%
Draw rate
36.4%
0.0%
Loss rate
22.7%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
31.8%
9.4%
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
32
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.39
Goals for per game
1.40
75.8%
Scoring rate
76.7%
46.8%
BTTS rate
39.5%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.41
87.5%
Scoring rate
77.3%
46.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
62
History Matches
43
1.39
Goals Mean
1.40
1.05
Goals Std
1.24
75.8%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
45.2%
Scored 2+ rate
39.5%
16.1%
Scored 3+ rate
11.6%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.76
Goals against per game
0.65
53.2%
Conceding rate
48.8%
0.56
Goals against per game
0.86
46.9%
Conceding rate
59.1%
62
History Matches
43
0.76
Conceded Mean
0.65
0.87
Conceded Std
0.77
17.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
14.0%
3.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.3%
0.56
Venue Conceded Mean
0.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
51.2%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
53.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
51.2%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
53.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
51.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
43
0.90
Result entropy
0.91
1.30
Goal Difference Std
1.42
10.26
Stability score
8.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
43
21
Lead Matches
21
76.2%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.86
9
Trailing Matches
2
44.4%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.16
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
119.0
Rest days
122.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.86
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
36
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
18
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.72
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.23
Portability PPG Range
0.09
84.22
Portability Score
91.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO28.01
PPG-0.05
GF-0.01
GA0.11
PPG0.72
PPG-0.80
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches19
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate5.6%
Scored 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches19
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches19
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score1.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.14
Portability Score-7.60
Rest days-3.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.26
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Current Team ELO28.01
Current Opponent ELO-28.01
Current ELO Difference56.03
Expected score0.08
History Matches19
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FAR Rabat

D
CODM Meknès0–0FAR Rabat1 Nov · away
Pick: FAR Rabat 42% · missed
W
FAR Rabat2–0Ittihad Tanger28 Oct · home
Pick: FAR Rabat 57% · hit
W
FAR Rabat2–1Korhogo25 Oct · home
Pick: FAR Rabat 61% · hit
D
Korhogo0–0FAR Rabat17 Oct · away
Pick: FAR Rabat 48% · missed
D
Hassania Agadir2–2FAR Rabat12 Oct · away
Pick: FAR Rabat 41% · missed

Raja Casablanca

L
Renaissance Berkane2–0Raja Casablanca1 Nov · away
Pick: Renaissance Berkane 51% · hit
D
Raja Casablanca1–1Hassania Agadir28 Oct · home
Pick: Raja Casablanca 47% · missed
W
Raja Casablanca2–0El Kanemi Warriors23 Oct · home
Pick: Raja Casablanca 44% · hit
D
El Kanemi Warriors2–2Raja Casablanca18 Oct · away
Pick: El Kanemi Warriors 40% · missed
D
FUS Rabat1–1Raja Casablanca13 Oct · away
Pick: Raja Casablanca 38% · missed

About this match

FAR Rabat and Raja Casablanca meet in Botola Pro on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah, Rabat. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: FAR Rabat win 48.4%, draw 33.4%, Raja Casablanca win 18.2%. The pick is FAR Rabat win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.0%. Both teams to score: 46.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.