ScoreProb
3. Lig - Group 1 Türkiye 3. Lig Group 1 - 10 2026

Fatsa Belediyespor vs Pazarspor

Fatsa Belediyespor Home · Elo 1,490
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pazarspor Away · Elo 1,520
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fatsa Belediyespor win
Fatsa Belediyespor winPick
40.5%
Draw
26.1%
Pazarspor win
33.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.3%
No50.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.8%
Under 2.553.2%

How much we know

Fatsa Belediyespor history49 matches
Pazarspor history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Fatsa Belediyespor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pazarspor are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,490. On rating alone Pazarspor would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Fatsa Belediyespor score more

    1.18 goals a game over 49 matches for Fatsa Belediyespor, against 1.07 over 46 for Pazarspor.

  • Pazarspor concede fewer

    Fatsa Belediyespor concede 1.35 a game, Pazarspor 1.09.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Fatsa Belediyespor matches, against 41% for Pazarspor. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 29 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fatsa Belediyespor
Pazarspor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.4
ELO
1520.4
49
ELO · Matches
46
1490.4
Current Team ELO
1520.4
1520.4
Current Opponent ELO
1490.4
-30.02
Current ELO Difference
30.02
0.46
Expected score
0.54
49
History Matches
46
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.89
Overperformance
50.95
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.40
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
46
1.45
PPG
1.37
42.9%
Win rate
34.8%
16.3%
Draw rate
32.6%
40.8%
Loss rate
32.6%
59.2%
Over 1.5 rate
56.5%
44.9%
Over 2.5 rate
41.3%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
25
1.70
PPG
1.16
52.2%
Win rate
32.0%
13.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
34.8%
Loss rate
48.0%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
48.0%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
23
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.07
73.5%
Scoring rate
63.0%
44.9%
BTTS rate
43.5%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.04
82.6%
Scoring rate
60.0%
47.8%
BTTS rate
40.0%
49
History Matches
46
1.18
Goals Mean
1.07
1.06
Goals Std
1.01
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
63.0%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
32.6%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
10.9%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.35
Goals against per game
1.09
63.3%
Conceding rate
63.0%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.28
60.9%
Conceding rate
68.0%
49
History Matches
46
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.42
Conceded Std
1.19
38.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.9%
18.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
46
0.93
Result entropy
1.00
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.34
6.72
Stability score
0.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
46
14
Lead Matches
12
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.67
10
Trailing Matches
6
10.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.26
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
192.7
Rest days
203.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
38
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
10
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.45
Portability PPG Range
0.08
70.84
Portability Score
92.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-30.02
PPG0.08
GF0.12
GA0.26
PPG0.54
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate10.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.43
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score6.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.95
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate20.2%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.38
Portability Score-22.08
Rest days-10.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.53
Current Team ELO-30.02
Current Opponent ELO30.02
Current ELO Difference-60.04
Expected score-0.09
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fatsa Belediyespor

D
Zonguldak Kömürspor2–2Fatsa Belediyespor31 Oct · away
Pick: Zonguldak Kömürspor 43% · missed
W
Fatsa Belediyespor2–1İnkılapspor25 Oct · home
Pick: Fatsa Belediyespor 55% · hit
W
Galata1–2Fatsa Belediyespor17 Oct · away
Pick: Fatsa Belediyespor 44% · hit
L
Kars 361–0Fatsa Belediyespor7 Oct · away
Pick: Fatsa Belediyespor 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pazarspor

D
Pazarspor2–2Gölcükspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Pazarspor 59% · missed
L
Pazarspor0–1Aliağa FAŞ27 Oct · home
Pick: Aliağa FAŞ 39% · hit
D
Beykoz İshaklıspor0–0Pazarspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Pazarspor 37% · missed
W
Pazarspor1–0Tokat Bld Plevnespor18 Oct · home
Pick: Pazarspor 44% · hit
W
Pazarspor3–1Erbaaspor7 Oct · home
Pick: Pazarspor 41% · hit

About this match

Fatsa Belediyespor and Pazarspor meet in 3. Lig - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Fatsa Belediyespor win 40.5%, draw 26.1%, Pazarspor win 33.4%. The pick is Fatsa Belediyespor win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.8%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.