ScoreProb
3. Lig - Group 1 Türkiye 3. Lig Group 1 - 10 2026

Tokat Bld Plevnespor vs Karabük İdman Yurdu

Tokat Bld Plevnespor Home · Elo 1,463
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Karabük İdman Yurdu Away · Elo 1,508
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tokat Bld Plevnespor win
Tokat Bld Plevnespor winPick
39.6%
Draw
23.9%
Karabük İdman Yurdu win
36.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.3%
No50.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.8%
Under 2.552.2%

How much we know

Tokat Bld Plevnespor history45 matches
Karabük İdman Yurdu history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Tokat Bld Plevnespor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Karabük İdman Yurdu are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,508 against 1,463. On rating alone Karabük İdman Yurdu would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.09 goals a game over 45 matches for Tokat Bld Plevnespor, against 1.04 over 47 for Karabük İdman Yurdu.

  • Tokat Bld Plevnespor concede fewer

    Tokat Bld Plevnespor concede 1.22 a game, Karabük İdman Yurdu 1.45.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    36% of Tokat Bld Plevnespor matches, against 43% for Karabük İdman Yurdu. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
Karabük İdman Yurdu
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.6
ELO
1508.1
45
ELO · Matches
47
1462.6
Current Team ELO
1508.1
1508.1
Current Opponent ELO
1462.6
-45.49
Current ELO Difference
45.49
0.43
Expected score
0.57
45
History Matches
47
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
47.37
Overperformance
50.57
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.85
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
47
1.16
PPG
1.30
31.1%
Win rate
36.2%
22.2%
Draw rate
21.3%
46.7%
Loss rate
42.6%
71.1%
Over 1.5 rate
61.7%
35.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.6%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.7%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
1.43
PPG
1.08
43.5%
Win rate
29.2%
13.0%
Draw rate
20.8%
43.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.09
Goals for per game
1.04
60.0%
Scoring rate
70.2%
35.6%
BTTS rate
44.7%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.21
82.6%
Scoring rate
70.8%
47.8%
BTTS rate
58.3%
45
History Matches
47
1.09
Goals Mean
1.04
1.17
Goals Std
0.90
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
70.2%
28.9%
Scored 2+ rate
25.5%
15.6%
Scored 3+ rate
8.5%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.22
Goals against per game
1.45
66.7%
Conceding rate
63.8%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.83
65.2%
Conceding rate
79.2%
45
History Matches
47
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.28
Conceded Std
1.53
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.4%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.3%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
47
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.96
Goal Difference Std
1.71
4.14
Stability score
3.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
47
13
Lead Matches
8
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.83
12
Trailing Matches
15
8.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
203.0
Rest days
203.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
13
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.13
Portability PPG Range
1.00
88.61
Portability Score
54.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-45.49
PPG-0.14
GF0.05
GA-0.22
PPG0.35
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate10.2%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score0.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.40
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate9.6%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-0.87
Portability Score33.85
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.02
Current Team ELO-45.49
Current Opponent ELO45.49
Current ELO Difference-90.98
Expected score-0.13
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tokat Bld Plevnespor

L
Düzcespor1–0Tokat Bld Plevnespor1 Nov · away
Pick: Düzcespor 43% · hit
L
Tokat Bld Plevnespor1–5Küçükçekmece Sinopspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 43% · hit
L
Pazarspor1–0Tokat Bld Plevnespor18 Oct · away
Pick: Pazarspor 44% · hit
L
Tokat Bld Plevnespor1–5Etimesgut SK7 Oct · home
Pick: Etimesgut SK 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Karabük İdman Yurdu

L
Karabük İdman Yurdu2–3Yalova Yeşilovaspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Karabük İdman Yurdu 46% · missed
L
Düzcespor4–1Karabük İdman Yurdu24 Oct · away
Pick: Düzcespor 43% · hit
W
Karabük İdman Yurdu1–0Silivrispor18 Oct · home
Pick: Silivrispor 36% · missed
W
Karabük İdman Yurdu1–0Beykoz Anadolu7 Oct · home
Pick: Karabük İdman Yurdu 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tokat Bld Plevnespor and Karabük İdman Yurdu meet in 3. Lig - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tokat Bld Plevnespor win 39.6%, draw 23.9%, Karabük İdman Yurdu win 36.5%. The pick is Tokat Bld Plevnespor win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.8%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.