ScoreProb
Premier League Belarus Round 28 2026

FC Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk

FC Vitebsk Home · Elo 1,531
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dinamo Minsk Away · Elo 1,669
Vitebsky Central Sport Complex Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dinamo Minsk win
FC Vitebsk win
29.1%
Draw
26.6%
Dinamo Minsk winPick
44.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.2%
No54.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.8%
Under 2.557.2%

How much we know

FC Vitebsk history65 matches
Dinamo Minsk history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dinamo Minsk are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dinamo Minsk are rated 138 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,669 against 1,531. On rating alone Dinamo Minsk would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Dinamo Minsk score more

    1.17 goals a game over 65 matches for FC Vitebsk, against 1.59 over 76 for Dinamo Minsk.

  • Dinamo Minsk concede fewer

    FC Vitebsk concede 1.26 a game, Dinamo Minsk 0.83.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of FC Vitebsk matches, against 46% for Dinamo Minsk. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Vitebsk
Dinamo Minsk@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.0
ELO
1669.2
65
ELO · Matches
76
1531.0
Current Team ELO
1669.2
1669.2
Current Opponent ELO
1531.0
-138.2
Current ELO Difference
138.2
0.31
Expected score
0.69
65
History Matches
76
0.01
Residual Mean
0.12
50.84
Overperformance
59.12
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
0.70
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
76
1.29
PPG
2.03
35.4%
Win rate
61.8%
23.1%
Draw rate
17.1%
41.5%
Loss rate
21.1%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
65.8%
43.1%
Over 2.5 rate
46.1%
21.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
35
1.63
PPG
1.94
48.1%
Win rate
60.0%
18.5%
Draw rate
14.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
25.7%
59.3%
Over 1.5 rate
62.9%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
27
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.17
Goals for per game
1.59
70.8%
Scoring rate
75.0%
43.1%
BTTS rate
44.7%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.46
77.8%
Scoring rate
71.4%
40.7%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.73
73.7%
Scoring rate
86.7%
36.8%
BTTS rate
60.0%
65
History Matches
76
1.17
Goals Mean
1.59
1.10
Goals Std
1.28
70.8%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
29.2%
Scored 2+ rate
51.3%
10.8%
Scored 3+ rate
23.7%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
0.83
66.2%
Conceding rate
61.8%
0.96
Goals against per game
0.89
55.6%
Conceding rate
62.9%
0.89
Goals against per game
0.87
57.9%
Conceding rate
66.7%
65
History Matches
76
1.26
Conceded Mean
0.83
1.18
Conceded Std
0.78
36.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.4%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.6%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
0.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
76
0.97
Result entropy
0.84
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.49
2.52
Stability score
15.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
76
23
Lead Matches
26
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
88.5%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.92
21
Trailing Matches
15
14.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
75.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.11
34
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
15
1.53
PPG
2.20
42.1%
Win rate
66.7%
26.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
31.6%
Loss rate
13.3%
57.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
26.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
5.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
19
Current Competition Matches
15
1.53
Current Competition PPG
2.20
0.11
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.87
7
Competition Season Count
11
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.46
0.92
Portability PPG Range
1.55
57.60
Portability Score
51.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-138.2
PPG-0.73
GF-0.42
GA0.43
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.31
PPG1.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.72
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.43
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate17.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score-13.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches4
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.76
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.63
Portability Score5.68
Rest days2.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.70
Current Team ELO-138.2
Current Opponent ELO138.2
Current ELO Difference-276.4
Expected score-0.38
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-8.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Vitebsk

L
FC Vitebsk0–2ML Vitebsk24 Oct · home
Pick: ML Vitebsk 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dinamo Minsk

W
FC Gomel1–2Dinamo Minsk24 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Minsk 35% · hit
W
Dinamo Minsk2–0Arsenal19 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Minsk 70% · hit
L
Dinamo Minsk0–1Baranovichi29 Aug · home
Pick: Dinamo Minsk 71% · missed
L
FC Isloch Minsk R.1–0Dinamo Minsk24 Aug · away
Pick: FC Isloch Minsk R. 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Vitebsk and Dinamo Minsk meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Vitebsky Central Sport Complex. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Vitebsk win 29.1%, draw 26.6%, Dinamo Minsk win 44.3%. The pick is Dinamo Minsk win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.8%. Both teams to score: 45.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.