Fiorentina W vs Lazio W
Match result probability Model pick: Fiorentina W win
Fiorentina W winPick
38.0%
Draw
28.2%
Lazio W win
33.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.8%
No48.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.4%
Under 2.544.6%
How much we know
Fiorentina W history38 matches
Lazio W history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Fiorentina W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.0%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Fiorentina W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,516 against 1,537. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Lazio W score more
1.34 goals a game over 38 matches for Fiorentina W, against 1.78 over 36 for Lazio W.
-
Defences are close
Fiorentina W concede 1.34 a game, Lazio W 1.28.
-
Lazio W games more often go over 2.5 goals
47% of Fiorentina W matches, against 64% for Lazio W. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lazio W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1516.4
ELO
1536.8
38
ELO · Matches
36
1516.4
Current Team ELO
1536.8
1536.8
Current Opponent ELO
1516.4
-20.48
Current ELO Difference
20.48
0.47
Expected score
0.53
38
History Matches
36
0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
51.44
Overperformance
52.84
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
0.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals 90
38
Matches
36
1.42
PPG
1.72
39.5%
Win rate
52.8%
23.7%
Draw rate
13.9%
36.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
65.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.9%
28.9%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
19
1.68
PPG
1.68
47.4%
Win rate
52.6%
26.3%
Draw rate
10.5%
26.3%
Loss rate
36.8%
57.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
19
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.34
Goals for per game
1.78
71.1%
Scoring rate
72.2%
52.6%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.74
78.9%
Scoring rate
68.4%
57.9%
BTTS rate
42.1%
38
History Matches
36
1.34
Goals Mean
1.78
1.26
Goals Std
1.51
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
72.2%
34.2%
Scored 2+ rate
55.6%
21.1%
Scored 3+ rate
27.8%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.74
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.34
Goals against per game
1.28
73.7%
Conceding rate
63.9%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.32
63.2%
Conceding rate
63.2%
38
History Matches
36
1.34
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.13
Conceded Std
1.33
42.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.1%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
38
History Matches
36
0.98
Result entropy
0.89
1.40
Goal Difference Std
2.11
2.06
Stability score
11.01
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
38
Eligible Matches
36
11
Lead Matches
13
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.87
11
Trailing Matches
10
18.2%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.04
Rest days
82.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
15
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.50
0.30
Portability PPG Range
1.00
79.36
Portability Score
50.00
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
38
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-20.48
PPG-0.30
GF-0.44
GA0.06
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.69
History Matches2
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.72
Stability score-8.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.98
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-0.70
Portability Score29.36
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Current Team ELO-20.48
Current Opponent ELO20.48
Current ELO Difference-40.96
Expected score-0.06
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Fiorentina W
L
Fiorentina W1–2Juventus W2 Nov · home
Pick: Juventus W 46% · hit W
Parma W1–2Fiorentina W25 Oct · away
Pick: Fiorentina W 45% · hit D
Como W1–1Fiorentina W17 Oct · away
Pick: Fiorentina W 40% · missed W
Fiorentina W3–1Ternana W30 Aug · home
Pick: Fiorentina W 61% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Lazio W
L
Inter Milano W3–0Lazio W1 Nov · away
Pick: Inter Milano W 59% · hit D
Lazio W0–0Como W25 Oct · home
Pick: Lazio W 46% · missed L
Ternana W1–0Lazio W17 Oct · away
Pick: Lazio W 48% · missed W
Lazio W2–0Parma W30 Aug · home
Pick: Lazio W 69% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Fiorentina W and Lazio W meet in Serie A Women on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Curva Fiesole - Viola Park, Bagno a Ripoli. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Fiorentina W win 38.0%, draw 28.2%, Lazio W win 33.9%. The pick is Fiorentina W win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.4%. Both teams to score: 51.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.