Napoli W vs AC Milan W
Match result probability Model pick: Napoli W win
Napoli W winPick
39.5%
Draw
24.5%
AC Milan W win
36.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes57.4%
No42.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%
How much we know
Napoli W history37 matches
AC Milan W history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Napoli W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 11:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Napoli W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
AC Milan W are rated 30 Elo points higher
Elo 1,509 against 1,480. On rating alone AC Milan W would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
AC Milan W score more
1.27 goals a game over 37 matches for Napoli W, against 1.57 over 35 for AC Milan W.
-
Defences are close
Napoli W concede 1.46 a game, AC Milan W 1.60.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
54% of Napoli W matches, against 60% for AC Milan W. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AC Milan W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1479.6
ELO
1509.3
37
ELO · Matches
35
1479.6
Current Team ELO
1509.3
1509.3
Current Opponent ELO
1479.6
-29.69
Current ELO Difference
29.69
0.46
Expected score
0.54
37
History Matches
35
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.50
Overperformance
50.69
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.70
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals 90
37
Matches
35
1.16
PPG
1.40
29.7%
Win rate
37.1%
27.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
43.2%
Loss rate
34.3%
70.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.6%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
18
1.26
PPG
1.28
36.8%
Win rate
33.3%
15.8%
Draw rate
27.8%
47.4%
Loss rate
38.9%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
19
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.27
Goals for per game
1.57
67.6%
Scoring rate
65.7%
59.5%
BTTS rate
54.3%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.39
57.9%
Scoring rate
55.6%
47.4%
BTTS rate
38.9%
37
History Matches
35
1.27
Goals Mean
1.57
1.22
Goals Std
1.40
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
65.7%
35.1%
Scored 2+ rate
51.4%
16.2%
Scored 3+ rate
31.4%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.46
Goals against per game
1.60
78.4%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.37
Goals against per game
1.33
78.9%
Conceding rate
72.2%
37
History Matches
35
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.13
Conceded Std
1.46
43.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
18.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.37
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
42.1%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
42.1%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
37
History Matches
35
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.83
1.99
Stability score
0.53
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
37
Eligible Matches
35
9
Lead Matches
9
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.74
9
Trailing Matches
9
33.3%
Non-loss rate
55.6%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
82.71
Rest days
83.71
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
16
Normal Rest History Matches
11
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.73
19
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.59
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.73
Portability PPG Range
0.15
62.50
Portability Score
86.61
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
37
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-29.69
PPG-0.24
GF-0.30
GA-0.14
PPG-0.01
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate1.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate0.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.64
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score1.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.57
Portability Score-24.11
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.46
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Current Team ELO-29.69
Current Opponent ELO29.69
Current ELO Difference-59.39
Expected score-0.09
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Napoli W
L
Roma W2–1Napoli W1 Nov · away
Pick: Roma W 67% · hit D
Napoli W0–0Inter Milano W24 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Milano W 48% · missed W
Sassuolo W1–4Napoli W17 Oct · away
Pick: Napoli W 37% · hit L
Napoli W1–2Como 1907 W4 Oct · home
Pick: Napoli W 68% · missed L
Inter Milano W6–0Napoli W30 Aug · away
Pick: Inter Milano W 72% · hit AC Milan W
L
AC Milan W0–3Inter Milano W7 Nov · home
Pick: Inter Milano W 49% · hit L
Como W1–0AC Milan W1 Nov · away
Pick: Como W 41% · hit W
AC Milan W3–0Ternana W24 Oct · home
Pick: AC Milan W 57% · hit L
Roma W4–2AC Milan W18 Oct · away
Pick: Roma W 69% · hit W
AC Milan W2–1Juventus W4 Oct · home
Pick: Juventus W 49% · missed About this match
Napoli W and AC Milan W meet in Serie A Women on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Giuseppe Piccolo, Cercola. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Napoli W win 39.5%, draw 24.5%, AC Milan W win 36.0%. The pick is Napoli W win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.4%. Both teams to score: 57.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.