Roma W vs Parma W
Match result probability Model pick: Roma W win
Roma W winPick
69.5%
Draw
14.8%
Parma W win
15.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes45.7%
No54.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.6%
Under 2.536.4%
How much we know
Roma W history51 matches
Parma W history24 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Roma W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.5%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Roma W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Roma W are rated 238 Elo points higher
Elo 1,674 against 1,436. On rating alone Roma W would be expected to take 80% of the points on offer.
-
Roma W score far more
1.98 goals a game over 51 matches for Roma W, against 0.67 over 24 for Parma W.
-
Defences are close
Roma W concede 1.25 a game, Parma W 1.33.
-
Roma W games more often go over 2.5 goals
61% of Roma W matches, against 33% for Parma W. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Parma W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1674.5
ELO
1436.3
51
ELO · Matches
24
1674.5
Current Team ELO
1436.3
1436.3
Current Opponent ELO
1674.5
238.2
Current ELO Difference
-238.2
0.80
Expected score
0.20
51
History Matches
24
0.17
Residual Mean
-0.12
62.05
Overperformance
43.19
0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
0.20
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.00
Goals against per game
2.20
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.80
PPG
0.70
2.00
Goals for per game
0.90
0.60
Goals against per game
1.50
90.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals 90
51
Matches
24
2.08
PPG
0.71
64.7%
Win rate
8.3%
13.7%
Draw rate
45.8%
21.6%
Loss rate
45.8%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
54.2%
60.8%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
11
2.20
PPG
0.45
68.0%
Win rate
0.0%
16.0%
Draw rate
45.5%
16.0%
Loss rate
54.5%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
36.4%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
27.3%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
25
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.98
Goals for per game
0.67
88.2%
Scoring rate
45.8%
45.1%
BTTS rate
41.7%
2.32
Goals for per game
0.18
92.0%
Scoring rate
18.2%
44.0%
BTTS rate
18.2%
51
History Matches
24
1.98
Goals Mean
0.67
1.32
Goals Std
0.85
88.2%
Scored 1+ rate
45.8%
60.8%
Scored 2+ rate
16.7%
31.4%
Scored 3+ rate
4.2%
2.32
Venue Goals Mean
0.18
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.25
Goals against per game
1.33
54.9%
Conceding rate
70.8%
0.92
Goals against per game
1.27
52.0%
Conceding rate
63.6%
51
History Matches
24
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.63
Conceded Std
1.25
27.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.2%
21.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.2%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
45.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
54.2%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
81.8%
45.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
54.2%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
81.8%
45.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
51
History Matches
24
0.81
Result entropy
0.84
2.26
Goal Difference Std
1.25
19.43
Stability score
16.06
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
51
Eligible Matches
24
25
Lead Matches
4
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
25.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.42
13
Trailing Matches
5
38.5%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
24
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.29
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.92
Rest days
84.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
27
Normal Rest History Matches
9
2.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.67
20
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.79
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
3
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.65
Portability PPG Std
—
1.70
Portability PPG Range
—
43.60
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
51
Clean History Matches
24
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO238.2
PPG1.37
GF1.31
GA-0.08
PPG1.75
PPG2.80
PPG2.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.42
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate11.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.74
History Matches27
Goals Mean1.31
Goals Std0.47
Scored 1+ rate42.4%
Scored 2+ rate44.1%
Scored 3+ rate27.2%
Venue Goals Mean2.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches27
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std0.38
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.37
History Matches27
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std1.01
Stability score3.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches27
Lead Matches21
Lead Win Rate59.0%
Lead Points Retention0.46
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate3.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches27
First Half Goals For Mean0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Rest days-0.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.52
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.96
Current Team ELO238.2
Current Opponent ELO-238.2
Current ELO Difference476.4
Expected score0.60
History Matches27
Residual Mean0.29
Overperformance18.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.39
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Roma W
W
Como 1907 W0–4Roma W7 Nov · away
Pick: Roma W 39% · hit W
Roma W2–1Napoli W1 Nov · home
Pick: Roma W 67% · hit L
Chelsea W2–0Roma W28 Oct · away
Pick: Chelsea W 53% · hit W
Juventus W2–5Roma W24 Oct · away
Pick: Juventus W 40% · missed W
Roma W4–2AC Milan W18 Oct · home
Pick: Roma W 69% · hit Parma W
D
Sassuolo W0–0Parma W31 Oct · away
Pick: Sassuolo W 51% · missed L
Parma W1–2Fiorentina W25 Oct · home
Pick: Fiorentina W 45% · hit L
Inter Milano W3–0Parma W18 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Milano W 68% · hit L
Lazio W2–0Parma W30 Aug · away
Pick: Lazio W 69% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Roma W and Parma W meet in Serie A Women on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Tre Fontane, Rome. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Roma W win 69.5%, draw 14.8%, Parma W win 15.7%. The pick is Roma W win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.6%. Both teams to score: 45.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.