Flacăra Moreni vs Blejoi
Match result probability Model pick: Flacăra Moreni win
Flacăra Moreni winPick
47.9%
Draw
21.8%
Blejoi win
30.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.9%
No41.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.571.1%
Under 2.528.9%
How much we know
Flacăra Moreni history38 matches
Blejoi history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Flacăra Moreni
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
- Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre6 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Flacăra Moreni are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Flacăra Moreni are rated 135 Elo points higher
Elo 1,581 against 1,446. On rating alone Flacăra Moreni would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.
-
Flacăra Moreni score more
2.26 goals a game over 38 matches for Flacăra Moreni, against 1.50 over 36 for Blejoi.
-
Flacăra Moreni concede fewer
Flacăra Moreni concede 1.34 a game, Blejoi 1.92.
-
Flacăra Moreni games more often go over 2.5 goals
71% of Flacăra Moreni matches, against 61% for Blejoi. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Blejoi@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1581.0
ELO
1446.0
38
ELO · Matches
36
1581.0
Current Team ELO
1446.0
1446.0
Current Opponent ELO
1581.0
135.0
Current ELO Difference
-135.0
0.69
Expected score
0.31
38
History Matches
36
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.09
57.22
Overperformance
44.35
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
3.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.30
2.60
Goals for per game
0.80
2.10
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
3.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals 90
38
Matches
36
1.87
PPG
1.00
57.9%
Win rate
30.6%
13.2%
Draw rate
8.3%
28.9%
Loss rate
61.1%
92.1%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
71.1%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
47.4%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
Venue performance10 signals 100
20
Matches
21
1.70
PPG
0.71
50.0%
Win rate
19.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
30.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
20
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.26
Goals for per game
1.50
89.5%
Scoring rate
69.4%
57.9%
BTTS rate
52.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.10
90.0%
Scoring rate
61.9%
55.0%
BTTS rate
47.6%
38
History Matches
36
2.26
Goals Mean
1.50
1.67
Goals Std
1.59
89.5%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
63.2%
Scored 2+ rate
36.1%
36.8%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.34
Goals against per game
1.92
65.8%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.14
60.0%
Conceding rate
81.0%
38
History Matches
36
1.34
Conceded Mean
1.92
1.32
Conceded Std
1.62
39.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
18.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.8%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
2.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
38
History Matches
36
0.86
Result entropy
0.79
2.39
Goal Difference Std
2.43
14.24
Stability score
20.78
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
24
Eligible Matches
24
13
Lead Matches
7
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
9
40.0%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
24
1.04
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
85.90
Rest days
99.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
22
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
15
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.89
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.48
1.12
Portability PPG Range
1.13
48.85
Portability Score
51.25
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
38
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO135.0
PPG0.87
GF0.76
GA-0.57
PPG0.99
PPG0.80
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate14.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate21.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.76
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate20.0%
Scored 2+ rate27.0%
Scored 3+ rate11.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std1.63
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.57
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate14.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches2
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score-6.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.54
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate28.9%
Trailing Win Rate8.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.01
Portability Score-2.40
Rest days-14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.68
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.11
Current Team ELO135.0
Current Opponent ELO-135.0
Current ELO Difference270.0
Expected score0.37
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.20
Overperformance12.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Flacăra Moreni
W
Berca1–6Flacăra Moreni31 Oct · away
Pick: Flacăra Moreni 57% · hit W
Flacăra Moreni6–0Progresul Draganesti23 Oct · home
Pick: Flacăra Moreni 65% · hit W
Plopeni0–3Flacăra Moreni17 Oct · away
Pick: Flacăra Moreni 48% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Blejoi
W
Progresul Draganesti1–2Blejoi31 Oct · away
Pick: Progresul Draganesti 38% · missed W
Blejoi1–0Viitorul Corbeanca23 Oct · home
Pick: Blejoi 60% · hit L
Tunari4–0Blejoi17 Oct · away
Pick: Tunari 54% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Flacăra Moreni and Blejoi meet in Liga III - Serie 3 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Flacăra Moreni win 47.9%, draw 21.8%, Blejoi win 30.3%. The pick is Flacăra Moreni win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.1%. Both teams to score: 58.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.