ScoreProb
Liga III - Serie 3 Romania Group 3 - 12 2026

Urban Titu vs Berca

Urban Titu Home · Elo 1,443
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Berca Away · Elo 1,495
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Urban Titu win
Urban Titu winPick
58.2%
Draw
19.1%
Berca win
22.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.0%
Under 2.532.0%

How much we know

Urban Titu history35 matches
Berca history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.2%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,755 matches.

Why Urban Titu are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Berca are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,495 against 1,443. On rating alone Berca would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Berca score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 35 matches for Urban Titu, against 3.50 over 2 for Berca.

  • Urban Titu concede fewer

    Urban Titu concede 1.63 a game, Berca 2.50.

  • Berca games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Urban Titu matches, against 100% for Berca. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Urban Titu
Berca@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1442.8
ELO
1494.8
35
ELO · Matches
2
1442.8
Current Team ELO
1494.8
1494.8
Current Opponent ELO
1442.8
-52.00
Current ELO Difference
52.00
0.43
Expected score
0.57
35
History Matches
2
-0.08
Residual Mean
-0.04
44.96
Overperformance
49.65
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
0.20
PPG
1.50
0.20
Goals for per game
3.50
1.60
Goals against per game
2.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
10
Matches
2
0.70
PPG
1.50
0.50
Goals for per game
3.50
2.00
Goals against per game
2.50
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.50
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.41
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
2
1.11
PPG
1.50
28.6%
Win rate
50.0%
25.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
45.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
34.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
0
1.61
PPG
—
44.4%
Win rate
—
27.8%
Draw rate
—
27.8%
Loss rate
—
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
18
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.00
Goals for per game
3.50
57.1%
Scoring rate
100.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.22
Goals for per game
—
61.1%
Scoring rate
—
38.9%
BTTS rate
—
35
History Matches
2
1.00
Goals Mean
3.50
1.07
Goals Std
1.50
57.1%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
100.0%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.63
Goals against per game
2.50
74.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.28
Goals against per game
—
61.1%
Conceding rate
—
35
History Matches
2
1.63
Conceded Mean
2.50
1.29
Conceded Std
0.50
54.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
25.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
—
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
—
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
—
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
—
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
2
0.97
Result entropy
0.63
1.79
Goal Difference Std
2.00
3.06
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
2
4
Lead Matches
1
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.58
Lead Points Retention
1.00
6
Trailing Matches
1
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
1.50
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean
2.00
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
99.90
Rest days
92.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
19
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
15
Long Rest History Matches
0
0.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.08
Portability PPG Std
—
0.17
Portability PPG Range
—
85.50
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateVenue Goals MeanVenue Conceded MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-52.00
PPG-0.39
GF-2.50
GA-0.87
PPG-1.30
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches33
Clean-sheet rate25.7%
Failed-to-score rate42.9%
History Matches18
History Matches33
Goals Mean-2.50
Goals Std-0.43
Scored 1+ rate-0.43
Scored 2+ rate-0.71
Scored 3+ rate-0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-3.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.58
History Matches33
Conceded Mean-0.87
Conceded Std0.79
Clean-sheet rate25.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.46
Conceded 3+ rate-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.91
History Matches33
Result entropy0.34
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-33.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.42
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.92
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.26
Long Rest History Matches15
Current Team ELO-52.00
Current Opponent ELO52.00
Current ELO Difference-104.0
Expected score-0.15
History Matches33
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-4.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Urban Titu

W
Urban Titu3–1Plopeni30 Oct · home
Pick: Plopeni 42% · missed
L
Râmnicu Sărat3–2Urban Titu23 Oct · away
Pick: Urban Titu 45% · missed
W
Urban Titu2–1Pucioasa16 Oct · home
Pick: Pucioasa 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Berca

L
Berca1–6Flacăra Moreni31 Oct · home
Pick: Flacăra Moreni 57% · hit
W
Plopeni3–5Berca24 Oct · away
Pick: Plopeni 59% · missed
D
Berca4–4Râmnicu Sărat17 Oct · home
Pick: Râmnicu Sărat 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Urban Titu and Berca meet in Liga III - Serie 3 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Urban Titu win 58.2%, draw 19.1%, Berca win 22.7%. The pick is Urban Titu win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.0%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.