ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 16 2026

Flota Świnoujście vs Polonia Środa

Flota Świnoujście Home · Elo 1,473
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Polonia Środa Away · Elo 1,603
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Polonia Środa win
Flota Świnoujście win
30.4%
Draw
23.3%
Polonia Środa winPick
46.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.6%
No43.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.5%
Under 2.539.5%

How much we know

Flota Świnoujście history61 matches
Polonia Środa history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Polonia Środa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Polonia Środa are rated 129 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,473. On rating alone Polonia Środa would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Polonia Środa score far more

    1.33 goals a game over 61 matches for Flota Świnoujście, against 2.05 over 65 for Polonia Środa.

  • Polonia Środa concede fewer

    Flota Świnoujście concede 1.61 a game, Polonia Środa 1.37.

  • Polonia Środa games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Flota Świnoujście matches, against 71% for Polonia Środa. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Flota Świnoujście
Polonia Środa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1473.5
ELO
1602.5
61
ELO · Matches
65
1473.5
Current Team ELO
1602.5
1602.5
Current Opponent ELO
1473.5
-129.0
Current ELO Difference
129.0
0.32
Expected score
0.68
61
History Matches
65
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
48.08
Overperformance
55.07
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
3.00
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.10
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.41
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
65
1.26
PPG
1.85
34.4%
Win rate
55.4%
23.0%
Draw rate
18.5%
42.6%
Loss rate
26.2%
78.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
57.4%
Over 2.5 rate
70.8%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
36
1.28
PPG
1.75
34.5%
Win rate
50.0%
24.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
41.4%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
86.1%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
29
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
2.05
72.1%
Scoring rate
84.6%
52.5%
BTTS rate
63.1%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.94
75.9%
Scoring rate
86.1%
55.2%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
61
History Matches
65
1.33
Goals Mean
2.05
1.13
Goals Std
1.44
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
84.6%
42.6%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
13.1%
Scored 3+ rate
36.9%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.37
73.8%
Conceding rate
72.3%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.31
72.4%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
61
History Matches
65
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.37
Conceded Std
1.26
47.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.5%
27.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.9%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
65
0.97
Result entropy
0.90
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.01
2.75
Stability score
9.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
63
15
Lead Matches
23
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
91.3%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.93
18
Trailing Matches
20
33.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.22
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.08
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
33
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
23
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
3.00
60.0%
Win rate
100.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.98
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.20
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.71
1.60
Portability PPG Range
2.00
46.00
Portability Score
41.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-129.0
PPG-0.58
GF-0.72
GA0.24
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.47
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate12.5%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Failed-to-score rate10.2%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.72
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Goals Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.01
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score-7.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.51
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.40
Portability Score4.83
Rest days0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.08
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Current Team ELO-129.0
Current Opponent ELO129.0
Current ELO Difference-258.1
Expected score-0.36
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Flota Świnoujście

L
Lech Poznań II8–1Flota Świnoujście31 Oct · away
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 41% · missed
D
Kluczevia Stargard2–2Flota Świnoujście24 Oct · away
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 38% · missed
L
Wda Świecie1–0Flota Świnoujście18 Oct · away
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Polonia Środa

W
Polonia Środa5–2Luzino31 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Środa 54% · hit
W
Polonia Środa3–1Śląsk Wrocław II28 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Środa 40% · hit
D
Kalisz0–0Polonia Środa24 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Środa 52% · missed
W
Lech Poznań II2–3Polonia Środa18 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Środa 51% · hit
W
Polonia Środa3–2Sandecja Nowy Sącz1 Sep · home
Pick: Polonia Środa 38% · hit

About this match

Flota Świnoujście and Polonia Środa meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Flota Świnoujście win 30.4%, draw 23.3%, Polonia Środa win 46.3%. The pick is Polonia Środa win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.5%. Both teams to score: 56.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.