ScoreProb
Elite Two Cameroon Round 3 2027

Fortuna Mfou vs Sable

Fortuna Mfou Home · Elo 1,440
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sable Away · Elo 1,524
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fortuna Mfou win
Fortuna Mfou winPick
50.8%
Draw
25.0%
Sable win
24.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.7%
No52.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.1%
Under 2.552.9%

How much we know

Fortuna Mfou history46 matches
Sable history19 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Fortuna Mfou are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sable are rated 84 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,440. On rating alone Sable would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Sable score more

    0.96 goals a game over 46 matches for Fortuna Mfou, against 1.32 over 19 for Sable.

  • Sable concede fewer

    Fortuna Mfou concede 1.52 a game, Sable 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Fortuna Mfou matches, against 42% for Sable. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 2 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fortuna Mfou
Sable@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1439.6
ELO
1524.0
46
ELO · Matches
19
1439.6
Current Team ELO
1524.0
1524.0
Current Opponent ELO
1439.6
-84.45
Current ELO Difference
84.45
0.38
Expected score
0.62
46
History Matches
19
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
44.92
Overperformance
52.34
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.80
0.90
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.54
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
19
1.04
PPG
1.53
26.1%
Win rate
36.8%
26.1%
Draw rate
42.1%
47.8%
Loss rate
21.1%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
41.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
23.9%
Over 3.5 rate
15.8%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
11
1.14
PPG
1.09
28.6%
Win rate
18.2%
28.6%
Draw rate
54.5%
42.9%
Loss rate
27.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.85
21
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.96
Goals for per game
1.32
52.2%
Scoring rate
84.2%
39.1%
BTTS rate
68.4%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.00
61.9%
Scoring rate
81.8%
47.6%
BTTS rate
72.7%
46
History Matches
19
0.96
Goals Mean
1.32
1.20
Goals Std
0.98
52.2%
Scored 1+ rate
84.2%
26.1%
Scored 2+ rate
31.6%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
10.5%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.52
Goals against per game
1.00
73.9%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.00
76.2%
Conceding rate
72.7%
46
History Matches
19
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.57
Conceded Std
0.73
37.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.3%
21.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
47.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
47.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
19
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
2.05
Goal Difference Std
1.17
4.08
Stability score
3.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
17
10
Lead Matches
4
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.83
14
Trailing Matches
4
14.3%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
129.0
Rest days
139.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
20
Normal Rest History Matches
5
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.80
18
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.32
Portability PPG Std
—
0.64
Portability PPG Range
—
60.85
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
19
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-84.45
PPG-0.48
GF-0.36
GA0.52
PPG0.05
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate32.0%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate19.9%
History Matches27
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.32
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches27
Conceded Mean0.52
Conceded Std0.85
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate21.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches27
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.88
Stability score0.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.42
Eligible Matches28
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.36
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches28
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.58
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-10.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.94
Current Team ELO-84.45
Current Opponent ELO84.45
Current ELO Difference-168.9
Expected score-0.24
History Matches27
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-7.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fortuna Mfou

No earlier results with our pick yet

Sable

L
Tonnerre2–0Sable24 Oct · away
Pick: Tonnerre 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Fortuna Mfou and Sable meet in Elite Two on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Fortuna Mfou win 50.8%, draw 25.0%, Sable win 24.2%. The pick is Fortuna Mfou win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.1%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.