ScoreProb
Challenger Pro League Belgium Round 10 2026

Francs Borains vs Seraing United

Francs Borains Home · Elo 1,478
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Seraing United Away · Elo 1,430
Stade Robert Urbain, Boussu Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Francs Borains win
Francs Borains winPick
51.6%
Draw
21.0%
Seraing United win
27.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%

How much we know

Francs Borains history55 matches
Seraing United history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Francs Borains are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Francs Borains are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,478 against 1,430. On rating alone Francs Borains would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Francs Borains score more

    1.31 goals a game over 55 matches for Francs Borains, against 1.06 over 54 for Seraing United.

  • Francs Borains concede fewer

    Francs Borains concede 1.55 a game, Seraing United 1.72.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Francs Borains matches, against 57% for Seraing United. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Francs Borains
Seraing United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.7
ELO
1429.7
55
ELO · Matches
54
1477.7
Current Team ELO
1429.7
1429.7
Current Opponent ELO
1477.7
47.95
Current ELO Difference
-47.95
0.57
Expected score
0.43
55
History Matches
54
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.07
48.02
Overperformance
44.59
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.70
2.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
2.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.61
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
3.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
54
1.15
PPG
0.83
32.7%
Win rate
18.5%
16.4%
Draw rate
27.8%
50.9%
Loss rate
53.7%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.4%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
31
1.40
PPG
0.77
40.0%
Win rate
16.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
29.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
54.8%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.5%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
25
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.06
65.5%
Scoring rate
63.0%
43.6%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.36
Goals for per game
0.97
64.0%
Scoring rate
61.3%
36.0%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
54
1.31
Goals Mean
1.06
1.49
Goals Std
1.08
65.5%
Scored 1+ rate
63.0%
34.5%
Scored 2+ rate
27.8%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.72
72.7%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.84
60.0%
Conceding rate
77.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
54
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.72
1.28
Conceded Std
1.34
47.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
59.3%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.4%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.84
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
54
0.92
Result entropy
0.91
2.11
Goal Difference Std
1.84
8.48
Stability score
8.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
53
9
Lead Matches
6
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.89
22
Trailing Matches
23
13.6%
Non-loss rate
21.7%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.34
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.91
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.43
26
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.92
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.53
Portability PPG Range
0.86
66.57
Portability Score
58.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO47.95
PPG0.31
GF0.25
GA-0.18
PPG1.50
PPG0.63
PPG0.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.41
Scored 1+ rate2.5%
Scored 2+ rate6.8%
Scored 3+ rate5.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std1.27
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate6.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score-0.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.02
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate0.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.32
Portability Score8.37
Rest days-1.14
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.74
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO47.95
Current Opponent ELO-47.95
Current ELO Difference95.90
Expected score0.14
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Francs Borains

L
Beerschot VA3–0Francs Borains31 Oct · away
Pick: Beerschot VA 60% · hit
L
OH Leuven1–0Francs Borains17 Oct · away
Pick: OH Leuven 45% · hit
W
Excelsior Virton0–1Francs Borains30 Aug · away
Pick: Excelsior Virton 65% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Seraing United

W
Seraing United1–0Liège30 Oct · home
Pick: Liège 57% · missed
W
Seraing United3–1Excelsior Virton24 Oct · home
Pick: Excelsior Virton 70% · missed
L
Zulte Waregem3–0Seraing United17 Oct · away
Pick: Zulte Waregem 57% · hit
D
Seraing United1–1K. Lierse S.K.30 Aug · home
Pick: K. Lierse S.K. 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Francs Borains and Seraing United meet in Challenger Pro League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Robert Urbain, Boussu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Francs Borains win 51.6%, draw 21.0%, Seraing United win 27.4%. The pick is Francs Borains win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.0%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.