ScoreProb
3. liga - West Slovakia West - 14 2026

Gabčíkovo vs MŠK Senec

Gabčíkovo Home · Elo 1,507
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
MŠK Senec Away · Elo 1,510
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gabčíkovo win
Gabčíkovo winPick
45.9%
Draw
23.9%
MŠK Senec win
30.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%
No44.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%

How much we know

Gabčíkovo history34 matches
MŠK Senec history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Gabčíkovo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,507 against 1,510. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.59 goals a game over 34 matches for Gabčíkovo, against 1.61 over 36 for MŠK Senec.

  • MŠK Senec concede fewer

    Gabčíkovo concede 1.94 a game, MŠK Senec 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Gabčíkovo matches, against 58% for MŠK Senec. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gabčíkovo
MŠK Senec
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1506.6
ELO
1510.1
34
ELO · Matches
36
1506.6
Current Team ELO
1510.1
1510.1
Current Opponent ELO
1506.6
-3.49
Current ELO Difference
3.49
0.49
Expected score
0.51
34
History Matches
36
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
50.31
Overperformance
51.16
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
2.60
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.90
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
36
1.38
PPG
1.56
41.2%
Win rate
47.2%
14.7%
Draw rate
13.9%
44.1%
Loss rate
38.9%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
17
2.38
PPG
1.35
75.0%
Win rate
41.2%
12.5%
Draw rate
11.8%
12.5%
Loss rate
47.1%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.67
16
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
1.61
88.2%
Scoring rate
72.2%
64.7%
BTTS rate
47.2%
1.94
Goals for per game
1.71
93.8%
Scoring rate
70.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
47.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
34
History Matches
36
1.59
Goals Mean
1.61
1.17
Goals Std
1.44
88.2%
Scored 1+ rate
72.2%
47.1%
Scored 2+ rate
47.2%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
27.8%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.94
Goals against per game
1.47
76.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.65
56.3%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
36
1.94
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.76
Conceded Std
1.44
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
32.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
36
0.92
Result entropy
0.91
2.21
Goal Difference Std
2.30
8.22
Stability score
9.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
35
8
Lead Matches
12
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.81
8
Trailing Matches
5
25.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
13
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.78
17
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.60
Portability PPG Range
0.73
63.87
Portability Score
62.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-3.49
PPG-0.17
GF-0.02
GA0.47
PPG0.00
PPG1.02
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate20.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate16.0%
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.54
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate24.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-1.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.34
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate5.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score1.65
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO-3.49
Current Opponent ELO3.49
Current ELO Difference-6.99
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gabčíkovo

W
Beluša2–3Gabčíkovo25 Oct · away
Pick: Beluša 65% · missed
W
Gabčíkovo3–2Trenčín II17 Oct · home
Pick: Gabčíkovo 44% · hit
W
Rača1–2Gabčíkovo30 Aug · away
Pick: Rača 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

MŠK Senec

W
Trenčín II0–1MŠK Senec25 Oct · away
Pick: Trenčín II 48% · missed
D
MŠK Senec2–2Beluša21 Oct · home
Pick: Beluša 51% · missed
W
MŠK Senec1–0Nové Zámky16 Oct · home
Pick: Nové Zámky 40% · missed
L
Slovan Duslo Šaľa3–1MŠK Senec29 Aug · away
Pick: MŠK Senec 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gabčíkovo and MŠK Senec meet in 3. liga - West on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gabčíkovo win 45.9%, draw 23.9%, MŠK Senec win 30.2%. The pick is Gabčíkovo win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.1%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.