ScoreProb
Elitettan Sweden Round 25 2026

Gamla Upsala W vs Göteborg W

Gamla Upsala W Home · Elo 1,400
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Göteborg W Away · Elo 1,584
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Göteborg W win
Gamla Upsala W win
14.5%
Draw
10.8%
Göteborg W winPick
74.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%
No39.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.6%
Under 2.530.4%

How much we know

Gamla Upsala W history43 matches
Göteborg W history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (74.7%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Göteborg W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Göteborg W are rated 184 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,584 against 1,400. On rating alone Göteborg W would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Göteborg W score far more

    1.21 goals a game over 43 matches for Gamla Upsala W, against 2.88 over 16 for Göteborg W.

  • Göteborg W concede fewer

    Gamla Upsala W concede 2.21 a game, Göteborg W 0.88.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    70% of Gamla Upsala W matches, against 75% for Göteborg W. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gamla Upsala W
Göteborg W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1400.2
ELO
1584.0
43
ELO · Matches
16
1400.2
Current Team ELO
1584.0
1584.0
Current Opponent ELO
1400.2
-183.9
Current ELO Difference
183.9
0.26
Expected score
0.74
43
History Matches
16
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.25
42.07
Overperformance
61.03
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.60
1.60
Goals for per game
3.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.20
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
2.40
1.30
Goals for per game
3.20
1.50
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.20
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
16
0.81
PPG
2.31
20.9%
Win rate
68.8%
18.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
60.5%
Loss rate
6.3%
83.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
69.8%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
41.9%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
9
0.76
PPG
2.11
19.0%
Win rate
55.6%
19.0%
Draw rate
44.4%
61.9%
Loss rate
0.0%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
21
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
2.88
67.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.5%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.10
Goals for per game
2.89
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.07
Goals for per game
2.73
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
43
History Matches
16
1.21
Goals Mean
2.88
1.27
Goals Std
1.49
67.4%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
32.6%
Scored 2+ rate
81.3%
9.3%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
2.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.21
Goals against per game
0.88
90.7%
Conceding rate
56.3%
2.10
Goals against per game
0.78
90.5%
Conceding rate
44.4%
1.80
Goals against per game
0.93
93.3%
Conceding rate
60.0%
43
History Matches
16
2.21
Conceded Mean
0.88
1.52
Conceded Std
1.11
60.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
12.5%
32.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
2.10
Venue Conceded Mean
0.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
6.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
16
0.86
Result entropy
0.71
2.10
Goal Difference Std
2.06
14.03
Stability score
29.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
16
10
Lead Matches
9
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
1.00
23
Trailing Matches
2
13.0%
Non-loss rate
100.0%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
50.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
1.19
1.05
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.69
1.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
23
Normal Rest History Matches
6
0.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
9
0.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
0.67
PPG
2.27
13.3%
Win rate
66.7%
26.7%
Draw rate
26.7%
60.0%
Loss rate
6.7%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
15
Current Competition Matches
15
0.67
Current Competition PPG
2.27
-0.73
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.80
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.09
Portability PPG Std
—
0.18
Portability PPG Range
—
84.78
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-183.9
PPG-1.50
GF-1.67
GA1.33
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.35
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Failed-to-score rate32.6%
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.46
Failed-to-score rate33.3%
History Matches27
Goals Mean-1.67
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.33
Scored 2+ rate-0.49
Scored 3+ rate-0.41
Venue Goals Mean-1.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches27
Conceded Mean1.33
Conceded Std0.41
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Conceded 2+ rate48.0%
Conceded 3+ rate20.1%
Venue Conceded Mean1.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches27
Result entropy0.15
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-15.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches27
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.40
Lead Points Retention-0.37
Trailing Matches21
Non-loss rate-0.87
Trailing Win Rate-0.46
Halftime Coverage Matches27
First Half Goals For Mean-0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.66
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.53
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-2.09
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Current Team ELO-183.9
Current Opponent ELO183.9
Current ELO Difference-367.7
Expected score-0.48
History Matches27
Residual Mean-0.36
Overperformance-18.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gamla Upsala W

W
KIF Örebro W0–2Gamla Upsala W31 Oct · away
Pick: KIF Örebro W 80% · missed
W
Gamla Upsala W3–0Häcken II W25 Oct · home
Pick: Gamla Upsala W 53% · hit
L
Elfsborg W2–0Gamla Upsala W17 Oct · away
Pick: Elfsborg W 71% · hit
L
Gamla Upsala W1–3Sandviken W29 Aug · home
Pick: Gamla Upsala W 61% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Göteborg W

W
Häcken II W1–4Göteborg W31 Oct · away
Pick: Göteborg W 76% · hit
W
Göteborg W2–0Enskede W24 Oct · home
Pick: Göteborg W 73% · hit
W
Örebro SK W0–4Göteborg W18 Oct · away
Pick: Göteborg W 66% · hit
W
Göteborg W2–1Alingsås W4 Oct · home
Pick: Göteborg W 77% · hit
W
Linköping W1–4Göteborg W29 Aug · away
Pick: Göteborg W 41% · hit

About this match

Gamla Upsala W and Göteborg W meet in Elitettan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gamla Upsala W win 14.5%, draw 10.8%, Göteborg W win 74.7%. The pick is Göteborg W win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.6%. Both teams to score: 60.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.