ScoreProb
Elitettan Sweden Round 25 2026

Jitex W vs Elfsborg W

Jitex W Home · Elo 1,477
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Elfsborg W Away · Elo 1,553
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Elfsborg W win
Jitex W win
22.5%
Draw
22.0%
Elfsborg W winPick
55.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.9%
No45.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.3%
Under 2.539.7%

How much we know

Jitex W history43 matches
Elfsborg W history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Elfsborg W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Elfsborg W are rated 76 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,553 against 1,477. On rating alone Elfsborg W would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.67 goals a game over 43 matches for Jitex W, against 1.67 over 42 for Elfsborg W.

  • Elfsborg W concede fewer

    Jitex W concede 1.72 a game, Elfsborg W 1.02.

  • Jitex W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Jitex W matches, against 55% for Elfsborg W. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jitex W
Elfsborg W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.0
ELO
1553.1
43
ELO · Matches
42
1477.0
Current Team ELO
1553.1
1553.1
Current Opponent ELO
1477.0
-76.03
Current ELO Difference
76.03
0.39
Expected score
0.61
43
History Matches
42
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
48.55
Overperformance
54.60
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.10
1.10
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.50
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
42
1.42
PPG
1.67
41.9%
Win rate
50.0%
16.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
41.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
83.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
69.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
44.2%
Over 3.5 rate
26.2%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
20
1.30
PPG
1.70
39.1%
Win rate
55.0%
13.0%
Draw rate
5.0%
47.8%
Loss rate
40.0%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
82.6%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
52.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
23
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.67
81.4%
Scoring rate
78.6%
55.8%
BTTS rate
47.6%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.95
78.3%
Scoring rate
90.0%
65.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.07
Goals for per game
1.93
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
43
History Matches
42
1.67
Goals Mean
1.67
1.39
Goals Std
1.43
81.4%
Scored 1+ rate
78.6%
39.5%
Scored 2+ rate
47.6%
27.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.4%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.72
Goals against per game
1.02
72.1%
Conceding rate
64.3%
2.13
Goals against per game
1.05
87.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
0.33
73.3%
Conceding rate
26.7%
43
History Matches
42
1.72
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.35
Conceded Std
0.99
55.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
34.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
2.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
73.3%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
42
0.93
Result entropy
0.92
2.12
Goal Difference Std
1.95
6.74
Stability score
7.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
42
14
Lead Matches
18
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.85
16
Trailing Matches
11
31.3%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.94
19
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
1.20
PPG
2.27
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
46.7%
Loss rate
6.7%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
15
Current Competition Matches
15
1.20
Current Competition PPG
2.27
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.60
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.34
Portability PPG Range
0.88
74.71
Portability Score
53.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-76.03
PPG-0.25
GF0.01
GA0.70
PPG-1.07
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Failed-to-score rate11.7%
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate2.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate6.5%
Venue Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.43
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.70
Conceded Std0.36
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate27.2%
Conceded 3+ rate27.7%
Venue Conceded Mean1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-1.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.19
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate4.0%
Trailing Win Rate6.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.93
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score21.58
Rest days-0.77
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO-76.03
Current Opponent ELO76.03
Current ELO Difference-152.1
Expected score-0.22
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jitex W

W
Jitex W5–1Sandviken W1 Nov · home
Pick: Jitex W 74% · hit
D
Husqvarna W0–0Jitex W24 Oct · away
Pick: Husqvarna W 43% · missed
L
KIF Örebro W7–2Jitex W17 Oct · away
Pick: KIF Örebro W 69% · hit
D
Enskede W2–2Jitex W30 Aug · away
Pick: Jitex W 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Elfsborg W

D
Elfsborg W0–0Alingsås W30 Oct · home
Pick: Elfsborg W 75% · missed
W
Örebro SK W1–4Elfsborg W24 Oct · away
Pick: Elfsborg W 56% · hit
W
Elfsborg W2–0Gamla Upsala W17 Oct · home
Pick: Elfsborg W 71% · hit
W
Alingsås W0–3Elfsborg W8 Oct · away
Pick: Elfsborg W 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Jitex W and Elfsborg W meet in Elitettan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Jitex W win 22.5%, draw 22.0%, Elfsborg W win 55.5%. The pick is Elfsborg W win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.3%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.