Golden Arrows vs Marumo Gallants
Golden Arrows
Postponed
Wed 4 Nov
Was due at 17:30 UTC
Marumo Gallants
Match result probability Model pick: Golden Arrows win
Golden Arrows winPick
54.6%
Draw
27.3%
Marumo Gallants win
18.1%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes40.9%
No59.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.542.8%
Under 2.557.2%
How much we know
Golden Arrows history57 matches
Marumo Gallants history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 7 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 31 Oct · 01:48 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 17:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Golden Arrows are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Golden Arrows are rated 116 Elo points higher
Elo 1,552 against 1,436. On rating alone Golden Arrows would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.
-
Golden Arrows score more
1.02 goals a game over 57 matches for Golden Arrows, against 0.80 over 56 for Marumo Gallants.
-
Defences are close
Golden Arrows concede 1.07 a game, Marumo Gallants 1.16.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
39% of Golden Arrows matches, against 32% for Marumo Gallants. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Golden Arrows
Marumo Gallants
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1552.0
ELO
1436.2
57
ELO · Matches
56
1552.0
Current Team ELO
1436.2
1436.2
Current Opponent ELO
1552.0
115.8
Current ELO Difference
-115.8
0.66
Expected score
0.34
57
History Matches
56
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.06
53.62
Overperformance
45.77
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.40
0.40
Goals for per game
0.60
0.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.70
0.50
Goals for per game
0.70
0.10
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
0.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.81
Overall performance9 signals 90
57
Matches
56
1.35
PPG
0.96
33.3%
Win rate
17.9%
35.1%
Draw rate
42.9%
31.6%
Loss rate
39.3%
59.6%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
38.6%
Over 2.5 rate
32.1%
17.5%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
29
1.62
PPG
0.86
41.4%
Win rate
17.2%
37.9%
Draw rate
34.5%
20.7%
Loss rate
48.3%
51.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
37.9%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
17.2%
Over 3.5 rate
17.2%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
29
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.02
Goals for per game
0.80
64.9%
Scoring rate
57.1%
42.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.14
Goals for per game
0.69
65.5%
Scoring rate
48.3%
37.9%
BTTS rate
44.8%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.75
0.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
57
History Matches
56
1.02
Goals Mean
0.80
1.00
Goals Std
0.87
64.9%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
24.6%
Scored 2+ rate
17.9%
10.5%
Scored 3+ rate
3.6%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
0.69
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.16
61.4%
Conceding rate
76.8%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.38
51.7%
Conceding rate
82.8%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
57
History Matches
56
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.18
Conceded Std
0.96
26.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
35.1%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
51.7%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
35.1%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
51.7%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
57
History Matches
56
1.00
Result entropy
0.94
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.30
0.08
Stability score
5.53
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
56
10
Lead Matches
9
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.74
15
Trailing Matches
16
26.7%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.29
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.19
Rest days
71.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.80
32
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.87
19
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
0.25
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
3
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.25
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.40
Portability PPG Range
1.25
49.52
Portability Score
52.86
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
57
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO115.8
PPG0.39
GF0.21
GA-0.09
PPG0.75
PPG0.76
PPG1.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate31.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate7.8%
Scored 2+ rate6.7%
Scored 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Conceded 2+ rate1.3%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.78
History Matches1
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score-5.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.14
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate13.3%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate0.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.15
Portability Score-3.34
Rest days2.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.63
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO115.8
Current Opponent ELO-115.8
Current ELO Difference231.7
Expected score0.32
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Golden Arrows
L
Mamelodi Sundowns1–0Golden Arrows3 Nov · away
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns 55% · hit L
Amazulu1–0Golden Arrows31 Oct · away
Pick: Amazulu 47% · hit W
Golden Arrows4–0Chippa United24 Oct · home
Pick: Golden Arrows 58% · hit L
Golden Arrows0–1Milford FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Golden Arrows 38% · missed L
Golden Arrows2–3Mamelodi Sundowns30 Aug · home
Pick: Golden Arrows 36% · missed Marumo Gallants
W
Marumo Gallants3–2Siwelele30 Oct · home
Pick: Marumo Gallants 41% · hit L
Mamelodi Sundowns1–0Marumo Gallants27 Oct · away
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns 56% · hit L
Sekhukhune United2–1Marumo Gallants17 Oct · away
Pick: Sekhukhune United 53% · hit L
Marumo Gallants2–3TS Galaxy25 Aug · home
Pick: TS Galaxy 39% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Golden Arrows and Marumo Gallants were due to play in Premier Soccer League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.