ScoreProb
Premier Soccer League South Africa Round 10 2026

Siwelele vs Orlando Pirates

Siwelele Home · Elo 1,491
Postponed
Wed 4 Nov
Was due at 17:30 UTC
Orlando Pirates Away · Elo 1,681
Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium, Bloemfontein Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
Match result probability Model pick: Orlando Pirates win
Siwelele win
10.1%
Draw
23.6%
Orlando Pirates winPick
66.4%

No match played

If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.

Both teams to score

Yes40.2%
No59.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.9%
Under 2.562.1%

How much we know

Siwelele history36 matches
Orlando Pirates history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 10 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 31 Oct · 19:48 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Orlando Pirates are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Orlando Pirates are rated 190 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,681 against 1,491. On rating alone Orlando Pirates would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Orlando Pirates score far more

    0.78 goals a game over 36 matches for Siwelele, against 1.61 over 82 for Orlando Pirates.

  • Orlando Pirates concede fewer

    Siwelele concede 1.00 a game, Orlando Pirates 0.62.

  • Orlando Pirates games more often go over 2.5 goals

    14% of Siwelele matches, against 40% for Orlando Pirates. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Siwelele
Orlando Pirates
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.8
ELO
1681.3
36
ELO · Matches
82
1490.8
Current Team ELO
1681.3
1681.3
Current Opponent ELO
1490.8
-190.4
Current ELO Difference
190.4
0.25
Expected score
0.75
36
History Matches
82
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.11
49.30
Overperformance
58.76
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
0.40
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.81
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.95
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
36
Matches
82
1.11
PPG
2.09
22.2%
Win rate
61.0%
44.4%
Draw rate
25.6%
33.3%
Loss rate
13.4%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.5%
13.9%
Over 2.5 rate
40.2%
13.9%
Over 3.5 rate
14.6%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
40
1.67
PPG
2.15
38.9%
Win rate
65.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
11.1%
Loss rate
15.0%
44.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.5%
16.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
18
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.78
Goals for per game
1.61
50.0%
Scoring rate
84.1%
30.6%
BTTS rate
37.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.78
72.2%
Scoring rate
90.0%
38.9%
BTTS rate
45.0%
0.75
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
36
History Matches
82
0.78
Goals Mean
1.61
0.97
Goals Std
1.18
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.1%
19.4%
Scored 2+ rate
48.8%
5.6%
Scored 3+ rate
19.5%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
0.62
61.1%
Conceding rate
43.9%
0.61
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
36
History Matches
82
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.62
1.27
Conceded Std
0.86
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
12.2%
2.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.9%
0.61
Venue Conceded Mean
0.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
56.1%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
56.1%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
56.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
36
History Matches
82
0.97
Result entropy
0.84
1.18
Goal Difference Std
1.56
3.44
Stability score
16.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
36
Eligible Matches
82
11
Lead Matches
35
45.5%
Lead Win Rate
94.3%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.96
7
Trailing Matches
11
0.0%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
36
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
71.00
Rest days
71.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
12
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
18
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.18
14
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
2.50
0.0%
Win rate
75.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.50
Current Competition PPG
2.50
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.75
4
Competition Season Count
12
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
9
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.45
0.73
Portability PPG Range
1.25
57.69
Portability Score
52.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
36
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-190.4
PPG-0.97
GF-0.83
GA0.38
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.48
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-46
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate34.1%
History Matches-22
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate17.8%
History Matches-46
Goals Mean-0.83
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.34
Scored 2+ rate-0.29
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.39
History Matches-46
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.05
History Matches-46
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.38
Stability score-12.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches-46
Lead Matches-24
Lead Win Rate-0.49
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.45
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-46
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.50
Competition Season Count-8
Eligible Competition Season Count-7
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.52
Portability Score5.01
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-9
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-31
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.07
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Current Team ELO-190.4
Current Opponent ELO190.4
Current ELO Difference-380.9
Expected score-0.50
History Matches-46
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-9.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Siwelele

L
Marumo Gallants3–2Siwelele30 Oct · away
Pick: Marumo Gallants 41% · hit
W
Siwelele1–0Polokwane City18 Oct · home
Pick: Polokwane City 35% · missed
D
Siwelele1–1Chippa United25 Aug · home
Pick: Siwelele 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Orlando Pirates

W
Orlando Pirates2–1Kaizer Chiefs31 Oct · home
Pick: Orlando Pirates 42% · hit
W
Orlando Pirates3–0Milford FC27 Oct · home
Pick: Orlando Pirates 59% · hit
W
Orlando Pirates4–0African Stars23 Oct · home
Pick: Orlando Pirates 57% · hit
W
African Stars0–1Orlando Pirates17 Oct · away
Pick: Orlando Pirates 49% · hit
W
Orlando Pirates3–0TS Galaxy13 Oct · home
Pick: Orlando Pirates 65% · hit

About this match

Siwelele and Orlando Pirates were due to play in Premier Soccer League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.