Richards Bay vs Stellenbosch
Richards Bay
Postponed
Wed 4 Nov
Was due at 17:30 UTC
Stellenbosch
Match result probability Model pick: Richards Bay win
Richards Bay winPick
34.4%
Draw
31.3%
Stellenbosch win
34.3%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes45.5%
No54.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.534.9%
Under 2.565.1%
How much we know
Richards Bay history54 matches
Stellenbosch history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 7 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 31 Oct · 01:48 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 17:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Richards Bay are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Stellenbosch are rated 38 Elo points higher
Elo 1,520 against 1,482. On rating alone Stellenbosch would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
0.87 goals a game over 54 matches for Richards Bay, against 0.96 over 72 for Stellenbosch.
-
Defences are close
Richards Bay concede 1.04 a game, Stellenbosch 1.00.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
30% of Richards Bay matches, against 33% for Stellenbosch. The model puts this match at 35% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Richards Bay
Stellenbosch
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1482.1
ELO
1520.4
54
ELO · Matches
72
1482.1
Current Team ELO
1520.4
1520.4
Current Opponent ELO
1482.1
-38.27
Current ELO Difference
38.27
0.45
Expected score
0.55
54
History Matches
72
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
49.28
Overperformance
51.72
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.90
Goals against per game
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals 90
54
Matches
72
1.22
PPG
1.39
27.8%
Win rate
34.7%
38.9%
Draw rate
34.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
30.6%
59.3%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
29.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
33
1.55
PPG
1.12
37.9%
Win rate
24.2%
41.4%
Draw rate
39.4%
20.7%
Loss rate
36.4%
58.6%
Over 1.5 rate
54.5%
34.5%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
13.8%
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
29
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.87
Goals for per game
0.96
64.8%
Scoring rate
56.9%
44.4%
BTTS rate
40.3%
1.10
Goals for per game
0.76
72.4%
Scoring rate
48.5%
48.3%
BTTS rate
36.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
54
History Matches
72
0.87
Goals Mean
0.96
0.82
Goals Std
1.06
64.8%
Scored 1+ rate
56.9%
18.5%
Scored 2+ rate
26.4%
1.9%
Scored 3+ rate
9.7%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
0.76
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.04
Goals against per game
1.00
64.8%
Conceding rate
65.3%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.09
55.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
72
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.05
Conceded Std
0.97
24.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.6%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.7%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
35.2%
Failed-to-score rate
43.1%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
51.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
35.2%
Failed-to-score rate
43.1%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
51.5%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
54
History Matches
72
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.36
Goal Difference Std
1.37
0.85
Stability score
0.16
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
54
Eligible Matches
72
10
Lead Matches
15
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
93.3%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.96
15
Trailing Matches
22
26.7%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
80.98
Rest days
82.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
11
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.73
23
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
24
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
66.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
7
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.12
Portability PPG Range
0.88
55.44
Portability Score
62.30
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
54
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-38.27
PPG-0.17
GF-0.09
GA0.04
PPG-0.67
PPG0.43
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-18
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate7.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.73
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Conceded 2+ rate0.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches-18
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score0.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.79
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate3.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-6.86
Rest days-1.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Current Team ELO-38.27
Current Opponent ELO38.27
Current ELO Difference-76.53
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Richards Bay
L
Kruger United3–1Richards Bay31 Oct · away
Pick: Richards Bay 36% · missed L
Sekhukhune United3–1Richards Bay25 Oct · away
Pick: Sekhukhune United 49% · hit L
Richards Bay1–4Mamelodi Sundowns13 Oct · home
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns 50% · hit D
Richards Bay2–2Kaizer Chiefs26 Aug · home
Pick: Kaizer Chiefs 43% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Stellenbosch
W
Durban City0–2Stellenbosch28 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed D
Kaizer Chiefs1–1Stellenbosch13 Oct · away
Pick: Kaizer Chiefs 56% · missed D
Durban City0–0Stellenbosch1 Sep · away
Pick: Durban City 36% · missed L
Golden Arrows1–0Stellenbosch26 Aug · away
Pick: Stellenbosch 36% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Richards Bay and Stellenbosch were due to play in Premier Soccer League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.